Commentary: US cellulosic reality may fall short

The commercialisation of the first cellulosic ethanol plant in the US is a milestone to be celebrated. For years, companies have endeavoured to produce ethanol – not from corn or sugarcane but from biomass waste product. The POET-DSM plant in Iowa, US, is the first of its kind to start up, with 20,000 gal/year of capacity.

Yet the question to ask now is: What’s coming next? Is this the first of many such plants to come on line, changing market dynamics, or will it be a flash in the pan?

Years ago, countless companies sought the holy grail of commercial cellulosic ethanol in the US. Yet today, it is just one plant so far that has started operations. The “fantasy fuel” has indeed become reality, as noted by POET’s co-founder.

But in stark contrast to the multiple shale gas-driven world-scale petrochemical projects representing millions of tonnes/year of capacity set to come on line in 2017 and beyond in the US, the cellulosic ethanol project slate is not promising.

Will biomass one day revolutionize the fuel sector? Perhaps, but it’s looking like that day is farther off than many have hoped or realised.