Value chain: Butadiene

Will Beacham

31-Oct-2014

FEEDSTOCK
Butadiene

  • Balanced-to-tight supply in Asia with heavy cracker shutdown schedule
  • Asia imports from Europe to redress tightness in supply during shutdowns
  • Q4 2014 sees Asia BD prices trending down as demand slows
  • Demand to remain soft amid weak macro-economy, especially China
  • Europe long, relies on exports
  • Wave of new capacity comes amid a poor outlook for derivatives like SBR
  • Oversupply in Europe managed through tailoring of operating rates
  • Limited change from this stable to soft position is envisaged
  • US prices falling as buying interest is thin amid ample supply
  • US demand is steady although on the soft side from lacklustre downstream synthetic rubber demand
 



36%
Derivative
SBR

  • Over 70% of styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) is consumed in tyre manufacture
  • Prices in Asia facing downward pressure in Q4 2014 due to ample supply
  • Weak natural rubber prices and China economy weigh on demand in Asia
  • Extra supply in India plus Europe spot adds downward price pressure in Asia
  • Positive economic indicators coming from Europe yet to be felt in SBR market
  • Cheaper Asia imports infiltrated Europe but higher prices in Asia may reverse this
  • Follows upstream butadiene closely, while pressured by natural rubber market
  • US prices have been softening because of pressure from lower-priced imports
  • US producers can’t compete with imports because of high feedstock prices
  • US demand lacklustre to steady, without typical driving season uptick
 



26%
Derivative
PBR

  • The major use of polybutadiene butadiene rubber (PBR) is in tyres, with a high proportion of the polymer produced 
going into treads and sidewalls
  • Its key properties include high elasticity, good wear resistance, and good flexibility at variable temperatures
  • PBR prices in Asia are expected to fall further in the fourth quarter due to ample supply and weak demand
  • Weak macroeconomic conditions amid a slowing Chinese economy to exert downward pressure on PBR prices in Asia
  • Lower-priced deep-sea cargoes from Europe to exert downward pressure on prices in Asia
  • Weak feedstock butadiene costs to further push down PBR prices in Asia
  • Soft natural rubber prices in Asia dampening market sentiment
  • Note: ICIS only reports on the Asia PBR market
 

11%
Derivative
ABS

  • Acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) is the largest-volume engineering resin. Its biggest use is in the automotive industry, followed by the electronics sector
  • Asia margins squeezed in H1, output reduced in Q2, so firmer prices from Q3
  • Manufacturing of finished goods for China exports weak
  • Weak demand in September and October, derailing price hike initiatives
  • Europe prices driven by feedstocks in 2014, particularly styrene barge contract
  • Europe demand stable with slight improvement due to better economy
  • South Korean imports impact Europe prices, particularly injection moulding
  • Demand picked up in September after European holidays
  • No major production issues in 2014; market continues to be well supplied
  • US prices are expected to remain stable amid steady fundamentals
  • US producer margins unacceptable as feedstock increases not fully passed on
  • Downtrend in feedstocks in Q3/Q4
 




READ MORE

Global News + ICIS Chemical Business (ICB)

See the full picture, with unlimited access to ICIS chemicals news across all markets and regions, plus ICB, the industry-leading magazine for the chemicals industry.

Contact us

Partnering with ICIS unlocks a vision of a future you can trust and achieve. We leverage our unrivalled network of industry experts to deliver a comprehensive market view based on independent and reliable data, insight and analytics.

Contact us to learn how we can support you as you transact today and plan for tomorrow.

READ MORE