Depth of Polish electricity generation deficit revealed

Poland’s power generation capacity is expected to fall short of potential peak demand by up to 1.2GW next year, energy regulator URE warned in a new report late on Wednesday.

The report was published by the regulator well after forward curve liquidity typically dries up on the Polish electricity market, which could pave the way for buying intefrest early on Thursday.

It said any capacity crunch is most likely to happen between January next year and 2016, and that a “generation deficit” of between 1GW and 1.2GW may emerge.

It added this shortfall is expected to “decrease consecutively” in the years to follow, but a deficit will still be in place, raising the likelihood an import-dependent power system for some years ahead.

Of 18GW of new capacity planned between now and 2028, wind generation will account for more than 40%, or 7.5GW, according to the report. Coal-fired generation will provide 32% of the new capacity.

It’s crunch time

By 2028, 5.2GW of capacity is due to be decommissioned in Poland, which initially spurred concern over a capacity crunch ( see EDEM 15 April 2013 ).

Wednesday’s report showed that utilities are going ahead with building 11.5GW less capacity than they had planned back in 2011.

The highest amount of new capacity will be added between 2017 and 2019, delayed from between 2014 and 2018 as was presented in a similar URE report in 2011.

Delays were attributed to falling prices in the wholesale electricity market and the related decrease in profitability of new capacity.

Some analysts previously told ICIS that after 2017, a potentially over-supplied power system would follow a much-feared capacity crunch ( see EDEM 13 March 2014 ). But the new report now suggests otherwise.

Poland’s first 1GW nuclear power plant is planned to come into operation in 2024.

Gas-fired boost

On the same day as the report surfaced, Poland’s largest oil company PKN ORLEN unveiled plans to build a 600MW combined-cycle gas-fired power plant (CCGT) by the end of 2017. The plant will be in Plosk, central Poland.

The oil refiner is also building another gas-fired power plant in the northern city of Wloclawek. The 470MW plant is expected to be operational from next year.

The company plans to operate some 1.5GW of co-generation capacity in the next three years, it added in the statement. Karolina Zagrodna