Europe Chemical Industry Outlook for 2015

LONDON (ICIS)–The following OUTLOOK ’15 stories were published by ICIS news between Monday 22 December 2014 and Wednesday 7 January 2015. Please click on the headlines to read the full versions.

OUTLOOK ’15: Europe ABS, SAN growth expected at small levels
Growth in the European acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) markets is expected to be limited in 2015, with only a small improvement on 2014 levels.

OUTLOOK ’15: Europe C2, C3 players eye upstream volatility
European ethylene and propylene market players will no doubt be watching upstream developments very closely in 2015 having emerged from a rather more dramatic and dynamic 2014 than anybody had anticipated.

OUTLOOK ’15: Europe PE, PP uncertain as crude plummets
2014 has been a year of two halves for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) in Europe. It started off sedately enough.

OUTLOOK ’15: Mixed expectations on Europe etac, little change for butac
Expectations for the European ethyl acetate (etac) market next year vary, with some participants anticipating market volatility because of factors exerting opposing influences on prices, while others expect a similar year to 2014.

OUTLOOK ’15: Global fertilizer demand set to ‘rise 2% y-o-y’
Following a rocky 2014 in which weakening economic growth in key regions like the US, China and Latin America suppressed agricultural and domestic demand, the fertilizer market is expected to rebound in 2015/16, according to the latest data from the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA).

OUTLOOK ’15: Glacial acrylic acid market set for modest SAP growth
The dynamics in the acrylic acid and acrylate esters markets in 2015 are likely to show little change from 2014, but there is expected to be modest growth from the super absorbent polymer (SAP) sector, and a determined push by producers for margin improvement.

OUTLOOK ’15: Mixed views on melamine market balance for 2015
The European melamine market has witnessed a well-supplied situation relative to demand in 2014, with mixed views on what to expect going into 2015.

OUTLOOK ’15: All eyes on Poland for sizeable CEE petchem moves
When it comes to finding momentum in the central and eastern Europe (CEE) petrochemical industry in 2015, Poland will once again be the centre of attention.

OUTLOOK ’15: No optimism, just caution for Europe BD players
European butadiene (BD) market players have dropped the word optimistic from “cautiously optimistic” for 2015  – the most frequently repeated phrase in petrochemicals since the fourth quarter of 2008.

OUTLOOK ’15: Turkey PE, PP picture unclear, prices in freefall
The outlook for the Turkish polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) market has become increasingly unclear during the fourth quarter of 2014 as prices entered freefall on the back of the drop in crude, lower European ethylene and propylene prices, and persistently weak demand.

OUTLOOK ’15: Oxo-alcohols, plasticizers could see more price pressure
Most European oxo-alcohols and plasticizers producers have been successful in softening the decreases for their November and December freely negotiated contracts despite sharp drops in feedstock propylene and orthoxylene (OX) prices.

OUTLOOK ’15: Europe chlorvinyls rationalisation leads to uncertainty
There is a degree of uncertainty as to what the European chlorvinyls seller landscape will look like in 2015 because of an ongoing need to consolidate and/or rationalise capacity.

OUTLOOK ’15: Europe Group I base oils face another difficult year
At the risk of sounding repetitive, European Group I base oil producers are set to face a challenging year in 2015.

OUTLOOK ’15: Europe capro demand expected to be flat with 2014
European caprolactam (capro) demand in 2015 is expected to be broadly at parity with 2014, according to market estimates.

OUTLOOK ’15: Year ends brighter for sulphuric acid producers
Sulphuric acid producers are ending 2014 with slightly more optimism than the previous year, with global prices steadily increasing as a result of fundamentals moving from over-supplied to more balanced.

OUTLOOK ’15: Cheap money, strategic refocus to drive Europe’s M&A
Repetitive talk of a stagnant European economy might indicate that mergers and acquisitions (M&As) activity will be subdued in 2015, but European chemical companies are well positioned with the tools to venture into transactions and focus their portfolios into more secure, risk-free businesses.

OUTLOOK ’15: Benzene braced for availability constraints, volatility
The sharp drop in crude oil values towards the end of 2014 and the subsequent knock-on effect this has had on the global petrochemical market is muddying any pricing forecasts for the European benzene market next year.

OUTLOOK ’15: Europe MMA supply to improve, some growth possible
Availability of methyl methacrylate (MMA) in Europe is set to improve in 2015, following a year that has been marked by outages. With little to indicate otherwise, production in the coming year is expected to run more smoothly than in 2014.

OUTLOOK ’15: Increasing supply, soft crude to impact Africa PE,PP
Two key factors expected to influence the Africa polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets next year are an increasing global supply of polymers and soft or volatile crude oil prices.

OUTLOOK ’15: Lower crude, low fleet growth to boost shipping
The outlook for the European shipping market in 2015 is looking as though it is potentially more positive than 2014 conditions as a result of sustained drops in crude oil values, the potential for improved global economic conditions and the expectation that fleet growth will be lower.

OUTLOOK ’15: Russia keeps polymer import substitution a priority
Russian petrochemical producers this year continued to push towards import substitution as a declining Russian currency made local polymer production more competitive.

OUTLOOK ’15: Upstream volatility throws nylon predictions into doubt
European nylon expectations of a strong start of 2015 have been thrown into doubt by plummeting benzene and crude oil values in November and December.

OUTLOOK ’15: Polynt CCP Resins deal to alter Europe MA merchant market
European maleic anhydride (MA) market dynamics in 2015 will depend largely on the strategy Italian producer Polynt implements after closing the acquisition of unsaturated polyester resins (UPR) producer CCP Resins.

OUTLOOK ’15: Global capacity rises threaten European phenol industry
Increased phenol and acetone production, particularly in China, could alter global trade dynamics and challenge the European industry, potentially leading to further decreases in operating rates.

OUTLOOK ’15: Unclear impact of crude adds to methanol uncertainty
As with most other chemical commodity markets, the outlook for methanol prices in 2015 is linked to crude oil developments. Specifically, whether Brent prices remain around the $60/bbl mark, or if they recover and to what extent.

OUTLOOK ’15: Shell production problems likely to impact solvents
The European isopropanol (IPA), methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) markets are expected to remain fairly tight going into 2015 on the back of continuing production problems at chemical major Shell.

OUTLOOK ’15: Europe styrene rocked by plummet in oil, benzene price
The forecast for pricing and sentiment next year in the European styrene market has been rocked in recent weeks with the sharp plummet in oil and benzene prices, and the collapse of the Asian styrene market since November 2014.

OUTLOOK ’15: Europe VAM prices to soften as market becomes balanced
2015 is unlikely to be as eventful a year as 2014 for the European vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) market. The scene for the last twelve months was set by decisions on the part of two producers to close down plants, which resulted in a major restructuring of the market.

OUTLOOK ’15: Legislation, crude oil fall cause biofuels uncertainty
Once again, the constantly evolving biofuels legislation in Europe has ensured that 2015 will bring yet another year of uncertainty for the industry, while crude oil price crashes further compound the lack of clarity.

OUTLOOK ’15: ACN 2015 forecasts sharply divided by end-use market
European acrylonitrile (ACN) demand growth in 2015 is expected to be sharply divergent depending on end-use market, according to market estimates.

OUTLOOK ’15: Modest growth, volatility for European chemicals players
Doing business in Europe over the last few years for many markets has been an exercise in searching for the bottom, with the followers of the worst-hit sectors such as the automotive rubber sector pronouncing that demand had hit the floor several times over the course of 2012 and 2013, only to see end markets such as the automotive sector slide further on the back of the eurozone’s faltering limp out of recession.

OUTLOOK ’15: Europe isocyanate markets likely to be well supplied
The European isocyanate markets are likely to be well supplied in 2015, and could even lengthen, particularly for toluene di-isocyanate (TDI), in view of new capacities coming on stream and flat demand in northwest Europe.

OUTLOOK ‘15: Europe PET driven by costs, survival still a challenge
The European polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market is used to a challenge and 2015 looks set to be no different. The prospect of consolidation, even after recent closures, is still a hot topic as margins are under intense pressure along the chain.

OUTLOOK ’15: Pressure on Europe naphtha prices will continue
Deeper penetration of ethane, propane and butane as petrochemical feedstock in the west, Asian condensate capacity additions, US gasoline demand fall and increased global competition for the ‘market of last resort’ – Asia – will keep the pressure on European naphtha prices in 2015.

OUTLOOK ’15: Xylenes production in Europe expected to remain limited
Low operating rates at isomerisation units is expected to persist into 2015, limiting production of paraxylene (PX) and orthoxylene (OX) and reducing demand for mixed xylenes (MX).

OUTLOOK ’15: Europe MPG price direction unclear, sellers await winter
For the first time in recent memory, European monopropylene glycol (MPG) players have no reliable price projections for the first quarter of 2015.

OUTLOOK ’15: European chemical producers to fight hard for growth
Europe’s chemical producers will have to fight hard for growth in 2015 in an uncertain global economic environment.

OUTLOOK ’15: Crude downturn expected to continue into new year
The downtrend in the crude oil markets, which took prices from around $115/bbl in the middle of 2014 down to around $60.00/bbl in December, is expected to continue into early 2015 on the back of an oversupplied market and ongoing concerns about the global economy.