Indian phosphate demand expected high as phosphoric acid settles

Focus article by Sylvia Traganida

LONDON (ICIS)–The phosphates market has high expectations for India’s diammonium phosphate (DAP) import demand following the settlement of phosphoric acid contracts for the first half of the year at $805/tonne CFR (cost and freight) between Moroccan fertilizer producer Office Cherifien des Phosphates (OCP) and its Indian customers, sources said on Friday.

There was talk in the market that OCP had already been shipping phosphoric acid to India under provisional prices. Other suppliers are now expected to follow suit.

Market players said that importing DAP is cheaper than producing it in India which is expected to give a boost to the market.

There are expectations that India will import 4.5m tonnes of DAP this year, up 20% from last year, given that a normal monsoon season in June-September is expected.

Moreover, the award of the RCF tender in India is expected to give some price direction to the DAP market, as all offers are for Chinese product and the lowest is at $491.30/tonne CFR.

In China, producers’ selling ideas remain at $470-475/tonne FOB (free on board) in a stand-off with Indian buyers, whose ideas are around $480/tonne CFR.

There are expectations that Chinese producers will focus on exports now that the domestic season is winding down, but it remains to be seen at what price level they will agree with Indian buyers.

West of Suez, the Tampa DAP benchmark remains under pressure, following a Mosaic sale to Central America. There are expectations that US DAP will be offered to India now that the phosphoric acid price has been announced, which could give a boost to the Tampa price.

In the US domestic market, demand remains lacklustre for another week due to the wet weather and is expected to pick up in the coming weeks when sowing will be completed in the Corn Belt.

“DAP demand will stay low until planting activity gets started. Plantings are way behind in the area and normally a lot more corn has been sown by now. Last year they were at 48% finished with corn but as of this week it is only about 1%,” said a US-based trader.

On the supply side, producers are discussing April tonnes with expectations that demand will pick up in the main exporting regions. DAP production rates at Tunisian state-owned producer Groupe Chimique Tunisien (GCT) remain unclear and OCP is heard operating at normal rates.