FBMC comment: France to turn net power exporter during peak hours amid high wind output

France is scheduled to switch from being a net importer of electricity to a net exporter for most of the peak delivery hours of Tuesday under the central-west Europe flow-based market coupling (FBMC) model.

This is despite French hourly prices carrying a premium over Germany, FBMC data published by the Joint Allocation Office on Monday afternoon showed. The data relates to flows and prices of electricity on a day-ahead basis.

The data shows that between hours 8 and 15 France will be a net exporter (see graph). The switch to French exports will coincide with rising domestic wind power production, from 5GW in hour 8 to 6GW in hour 15, according to ICIS analyst forecasts.

This is typically a high level of wind output for France. Elsewhere German wind power will decline slightly, despite remaining above 26GW, and outbound flows will reach capacity during this period.

Meanwhile the Netherlands will essentially be balanced with power flowing from Germany and France through Belgium.

The hourly data shows that French prices will be largely equal to Belgium and Netherlands.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, forecasts show that wind power in Germany will remain high, around 27GW.

Meanwhile ICIS price assessments of the over-the-counter power market for French baseload and peaks show the products maintain a premium over Germany for Wednesday delivery. However the premiums are more than 50% lower than Tuesday’s equivalents.

It is therefore very likely that Germany will stay a net exporter throughout the day but it is less likely that outbound flows will be pushed to their maximum so often. christopher.rene@icis.com