EPCA ’16: Europe chems buyers predict drops to volumes, profit – CMCI
Tom Brown
02-Oct-2016
BUDAPEST (ICIS)–European chemicals buyers are
predicting that order book volumes and profitability will
decline over the next 12 months, according to ICIS CMCI data
recorded in the run-up to the European Petrochemicals
Association (EPCA) meeting.
Modest projected improvements to the economic environment
were the lone silver lining for chemicals buyers in the
region surveyed by ICIS in late September.
Current
order book volumes are seen as little changed from the same
time a year earlier, but are expected to decline slightly
over the next 12 months. Current profitability is seen to
have improved slightly since September 2015, but is expected
to decline over the next year.
The bearish sentiment comes despite modest improvements in
the European economy after some sharper declines in the
immediate aftermath of the UK’s vote to leave the EU.
Eurozone manufacturing sector output also improved in August,
albeit more slowly, as strong improvements for German and
Spanish private sector demand were balanced against modest
contractions for Italy and France.
Expectations for future profitability and order book volumes
both dropped during the month compared to the previous month,
and stood at the lowest levels since CMCI data was first
gathered in May.
The overall September CMCI hinted at stabilising conditions
for the European chemicals sector as a whole after several
volatile months, but improvements for business condition
expectations and current profitability remained modest.
The newly established ICIS Europe CMCI
aggregates sentiment from hundreds of petrochemical market
players actively involved in price negotiations across more
than 60 different markets.
The Europe CMCI runs from +100, to -100, with zero on each index representing neutral, or uncertain conditions, a negative score indicating bearish expectations and a positive score representing bullish expectations. The indices also gather sentiment on the comparison between the current situation and the situation across the past 12 months to give a complete picture of current market conditions and confidence. The information is gathered in the third week of each month. A full methodology is available on request.
For more details on the overall Europe CMCI data, click here
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