Asia isomer-grade xylene supply to remain tight into November
Hazel Kumari
11-Oct-2016
Focus article by Hazel Kumari
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Isomer-grade xylene supply in northeast
Asia is considered short amid a spate of plant turnarounds in
the region, with prices for October and November-loading
cargoes expected to be stable-to-firm, market participants
said on Tuesday.
On 10 October, regional prices were assessed at $706/tonne
CFR (cost and freight) NE (northeast) Asia, according to ICIS
data.
Spot availability for November was deemed tight despite the
expected start-up of Hyundai Chemical’s new 1m tonne/year
plant in Daesan, South Korea.
Most plants in northeast Asia have scheduled turnarounds
between from September and to end-October. Upon restart of
their plants, most producers were shoring up inventories and
have no cargoes available for the spot market.
In Japan, supply was curtailed by a heavy turnaround season,
with three main aromatics plants shutting from September to
early November.
JX Nippon Oil & Energy’s 380,000 tonne/year plant in
Negishi is undergoing routine overhaul for 30-45 days from
end-September, while Cosmo Oil’s 300,000 tonne/year plant in
Yokkaichi is due for a month-long turnaround from
mid-October.
Idemitsu Kosan’s 317,000 tonne/year Tokuyama unit, meanwhile,
has been shut since 10 September for maintenance and is due
to resume operations in November.
“We are unable to get any additional volume from Japan even
though we had requested for one or two more cargoes to make
up our shortfall,” said a Japan-based trader.
In the last 12 months, Japanese producers had increased their
isomer-grade xylene exports to South Korea, Taiwan and China
due to fledging consumption brought on by a stagnation in the
domestic economy.
Japan’s economy, the world’s third largest, has faced strong
headwinds in recent decades. The government’s aggressive
monetary and fiscal stimulus measures have so far failed to
increase wages growth, boost consumer spending and lift
inflation.
Its ageing population – Japan has the highest proportion of
people over 65 in the world – has constrained the
government’s ability to stimulate consumer demand and expand
the workforce.
As a result, the overall petrochemical market was deemed
oversupplied, encouraging producers to look at capacity
adjustments, mergers and increased export sales in
2016.
“With the merger concluded and expected to start next year,
we would be able to reduce our fixed costs by closing the
non-lucrative older plants while increasing output at the
others to maintain a balanced aromatics market,” said a major
Japanese aromatics producer.
A second Japanese aromatics producer said: “It is extremely crucial we keep our competitive edge, especially now that China is looking to become more self-sufficient, expanding their current plants and building new ones such as Ningbo Daxie.”
In South Korea, supply and demand fundamentals were described
as balanced-to-slightly tight despite the ongoing maintenance
at two major isomer-grade xylene plants. End-users had
planned their maintenances to coincide with the upstream
isomer-grade xylene plants to reduce their spot requirements
amid snug supply.
“I have been looking to cover my November short but there are
no physical cargoes available. Everyone has been saying that
the market is definitely long since Hyundai Chemicals is
starting up but it doesn’t seem to be the case,” said a South
Korea-based trader.
Despite the downtrend in downstream paraxylene (PX) prices,
most South Korean players said feedstock costs were still
largely stable-to-slightly firm due to the reduction in spot
supply as producers were looking to rebuild inventories after
completion of plant turnarounds.
“We won’t have any spot cargoes available until mid-end
November once [our] plant is restarted as we still have to
provide to our contractual customers first,” said a South
Korean-based producer.
Most players polled agreed that market fundamentals are
unlikely to change despite the start-up of Hyundai Chemical’s
new 1m tonne/year isomer-grade xylene plant in Daesan.
“Hyundai Chemical’s starting commercial operations by early
November which should lengthen or at least alleviate the
current tight supply. But, as we can now see, there are just
too many maintenances going on in South Korea and Japan which
is the reason prices had also been climbing for isomer-grade
xylene,” added the producer.
Regional demand for October and November is expected to
improve as several traders and end-users were heard sitting
on short positions.
In Taiwan, isomer-grade xylene supply was disrupted by a
technical issue at CPC Corp’s No 4 cracker in Linyuan which
prompted the producer to shut its aromatics unit at the same
location for a 10 day maintenance starting 6 October,
according to market sources.
Its No 6 aromatics unit was also shut on 1-2 October for a
scheduled maintenance of 40-45 days, in line with the
turnarounds at upstream facilities, to repair damages
sustained when Typhoon Meranti struck Taiwan in
September.
A key Taiwanese end-user returned to the spot market seeking
additional volumes to plug the lowered contractual volumes
for October and November, causing a snowball effect. Traders
also flocked to the open trading arena to cover their
November short positions.
“I had sold two cargoes to FCFC [Formosa Chemicals &
Fibre Corporation] for second-half October and early-November
loading. They are seeking more cargoes due to the shutdown at
CPC,” said a northeast Asian based producer.
In China, cargo availability for October was reduced due to
ongoing/impending plant turnarounds and firm demand from the
gasoline blending and PX sectors.
Sinopec-SK Wuhan would be shutting its 56,000 tonne/year of
MX line based in Hubei provinces from 17-20 October to
rectify a problem at the unit’s heat exchanger.
Supply for October was reduced further as Sinopec Jinling
Petrochemical’s restart date had been delayed as a fire
erupted at a reformer at the site on 9 October.
The reformer – which has the capacity to produce 290,000
tonnes/year of xylene and is integrated with a downstream PX
facility – was shut for turnaround in August and was in the
process of restarting when it caught fire, industry sources
said.
Furthermore, polyester makers were in their last
manufacturing push ahead of the yearend season, which had
increased demand for upstream PX and isomer-grade xylene
cargoes. Aromatics producers with integrated PX plants were
keeping their isomer-grade xylene for captive uses, industry
sources said.
Other major petrochemical producers were diverting their
isomer-grade xylene production to the gasoline blending pool
instead of extraction for the downstream PX consumption due
to better demand and prices.
“Toluene prices had seen a great spike in the last few weeks
because of the high demand from gasoline blenders. It has
reached levels [price-wise] where it does not make sense for
the gasoline blenders and they are seeking cheaper
alternatives like MX [mixed xylenes],” said a South Korean
trader.
Previously, Chinese import demand for isomer-grade xylene was
limited by a surplus of cargoes available in the domestic
market and large fluctuations in the yuan against the US
dollar exchange rate.
On 10 October, discussions for isomer-grade xylene were at
yuan (CNY) 5,900-6,000/tonne ex-tank in eastern China and at
CNY5,900-5,975/tonne ex-tank in southern China. On an import
parity basis, the prices were equivalent to $737-749/tonne
and $737-746/tonne, respectively.
China’s domestic prices are currently higher than CFR NE Asia
prices by $31-43/tonne.
“This year, the Chinese traders have been so quiet but they
finally returned to the spot market in end-September because
of surging domestic prices,” the South Korean trader
said.
“Domestic MX prices had increased to the point that it’s
higher than the CFR NE Asia market and already three to four
cargoes are heading to east and south China,” he added.
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