Sharp rise in producer future volume, business conditions confidence – CMCI

Mark Victory

05-Jan-2017

LONDON (ICIS)–European chemical producers’ confidence in future business conditions and order book volumes in the next 12 months has increased sharply in the past month, analysis of the ICIS Chemical Market Confidence Index (CMCI) showed on Thursday.

The majority of other indicators also increased, but views on current business conditions and profitability compared with 12 months ago have fallen since November, albeit remaining in positive territory.

Rising confidence in future business conditions and order book volumes may be linked to the resilience shown in downstream market to economic shock events during 2016, along with more attractive export environment resulting from the US dollar/euro exchange rate.

The change in producers’ confidence in December broadly mirrors the overall trend in the CMCI, although producers’ confidence in current business conditions has fallen compared to a rise in the overall index.

ICIS is considering changing the methodology of the CMCI from January to track future expectations 6 months ahead instead of 12 months ahead. If you have any views on this, please contact Mark Victory at mark.victory@icis.com.

The ICIS Europe CMCI aggregates sentiment from hundreds of petrochemical market players actively involved in price negotiations across more than 60 different markets.

The Europe CMCI runs from +100, to -100, with zero on each index representing neutral, or uncertain conditions, a negative score indicating bearish expectations and a positive score representing bullish expectations. The indices also gather sentiment on the comparison between the current situation and the situation across the past 12 months to give a complete picture of current market conditions and confidence. The information is gathered in the third week of each month.  A full methodology is available on request.

For more details on the overall Europe CMCI data, click here

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