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Asian Chemical Connections

It really is a Mad World

As the potential swine flu pandemi threatens more lives – and even more damage to the global economy – it’s time to watch American Idol re-runs. It would be great if we could all collectively retire to some paradise island where Manchester Utd and Chelsea have never won a Premiership trophy, or any kind of […]

Is it better to be right for not quite……

……all the right reasons than to be wrong altogether? Sounds a dumb question, perhaps – unless you take particular pride in being one of those know-it-alls. The point I am trying to make (and assuming that chemicals pricing doesn’t collapse beforehand on a broader retreat in crude and equites on maybe panic over swine flu […]

Is China repeating the mistakes of the US?

My current favourite blogger is Michael Pettis, professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, who, in his latest post, makes a very worrying point below. As an aside, and without wanting to take the 1930s analogy too far, this debate in China is a little like the split in the 1930s between the internationalists […]

China’s economy: A case of wishful thinking?

Could the chemicals industry be in danger of wanting to believe something so much that ignores overwhelming evidence to the contrary? The widespread perception is that China’s economy has reached a turning point. “The worst of the crisis is over and the world is entering the time when things will gradually get better,” wrote former […]

Do you need a Joseph Kennedy moment?

Referring to the famous story about how Joseph Kennedy sold his shares on the eve of the Wall Street Crash after being given investment tips by a shoe-shine boy, my answer to the above is a definitive YES. Over the course of rest of this week I am going to detail why I think reports […]

China polyolefin speculation gets worse

See the piece below. I suspect polyolefin pricing will fall a lot further: A Singapore-based polyolefin trader took a telephone call during a lunch meeting a few weeks ago from his counterpart on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE). “Sell, sell, sell,” advised his colleague from the other side of the restaurant table. But he decided […]

Some important new petchem trends

To keep you updated on what we believe is happening in petrochemicals, here are some important recent trends: *Futures markets in China are playing an increasingly important role in influencing pricing in polyolefins, methanol and PTA. Trading volume on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (watch out for Focus piece due out on ICIS today) for LLDPE […]

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