China PO demand will continue to expand but slower than capacity

China, Markets, Polyolefins, Projects

By John Richardson

China’s capacity to produce polyethylene and polypropylene will expand at a double-digit pace next year, while demand growth is expected to ease, says Longston Li, analyst at Shanghai-based CBI.

CBI expects China’s polyethylene (PE) capacity would jump by 1.99m tonnes in 2010 to 11.1m tonnes, while its polypropylene (PP) capacity would increase by 2.74m tonnes to 12.7m tonnes.

“This will include not only new capacities due to start next year, but the impact of plants that were commissioned in the second half of 2009. Many of the players in the China market believe there will be great supply pressure in 2010,” says Li.

China’s PP output could rise by as much as 2.6m tonnes next year when plants commissioned in the second half of this year were taken into account.

While demand for PE and PP will continue to increase the extraordinary growth witnessed this year (see this entry) may not happen again.

Li expects PE demand to rise 7.1% next year to 16.27m tonnes in 2010, while PP demand would grow 12% to 14.55m tonnes next year, moderating from the projected 31.5% surge in demand for PE and 24% jump for PP in 2009.

The following excel file has a list of Chinese PE and PP projects due to start next year.
China 2010 projects.xls


Concerned about the Asean FTA? There's not much you can do about it.


The implementation of a zero-tariff regime in Asean from 1 Jauary 2010 has raise...

Learn more

Philippines cracker - revival of an epic saga


By Malini Hariharan Some projects never die. JG Summit has been planning a crack...

Learn more
More posts
European petrochemical markets keeping calm and carrying on in light of Saudi attacks

Here is a guest post from my very good ICIS colleague, Matt Tudball, our head of European Markets, w...

Global PE market to remain long despite Saudi cutbacks caused by drone attack

By John Richardson TRADERS lucky enough to be holding long positions in PE ahead of the 14 September...

Risk of stagflation and recession from drone attack on Saudi oil facilities

By John Richardson ANY major change in US government foreign policy always carries major risks becau...

President Trump can only cause major economic damage by beating China, unless he has a time machine

The views in this blog, are, as always, my own personal views and don’t reflect the views of I...

Unsustainable boom in China auto market ends as sales of new vehicles move permanently lower

By John Richardson THERE IS a big temptation when making forecasts of becoming too excited about the...

Global PP demand could be 81.5m tonnes less than forecast in 2019-2028 as China Debt Supercycle ends

By John Richardson SOME PEOPLE argue that despite the rapid rise in Chinese consumer debt over the l...

China economic stimulus and PP: How global demand could have been 71m tonnes smaller

By John Richardson CHINA came to the rescue of the global economy in 2009. This wasn’t for altruis...

Hong Kong an example of rising political risk and the end of easy growth

This blog expresses my opinions and not those of ICIS By John Ricuardson THE UNREST in Hong Kong wor...


Market Intelligence

ICIS provides market intelligence that help businesses in the energy, petrochemical and fertilizer industries.

Learn more


Across the globe, ICIS consultants provide detailed analysis and forecasting for the petrochemical, energy and fertilizer markets.

Learn more

Specialist Services

Find out more about how our specialist consulting services, events, conferences and training courses can help your teams.

Learn more

ICIS Insight

From our news service to our thought-leadership content, ICIS experts bring you the latest news and insight, when you need it.

Learn more