YESTERDAY we examined some of the factors shaping long-term outlook for polyethylene (PE) exports to China. And, today, as promised, we go into detail on another part of the story: Influences on future feedstock-cost position of US producers. What follows only scratches the surface. There are many more complexities that we shall examine in future […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China PE Imports: A Long-Term Outlook
By John Richardson THE chart below is worth revisiting, and pondering again, as we attempt to assess the future of polyethylene (PE) exports to China. In the case of the Middle East, as the chart shows, it has been a case of “so far so good” in 2013. Overall PE import volumes from the […]
China’s September Trade Data Shows Real Direction
By John Richardson EVIDENCE that decoupling might be a myth has grown with the release of China’s September export data. Exports to the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region fell 9.8% by value in September 2013 compared with the same month in 2012. Part of the explanation for the decline is the “over-invoicing” fiddle […]
China, The November Plenum And De-Stocking
By John Richardson THE end of China’s Golden Week holidays, which ran from 1-7 October, has represented an opportunity for some polyolefins traders. “Stocks were low before the holidays, and, as a result, once business activity resumed in earnest on 10 October, we have seen a considerable uptick in buying from the converters,” said one […]
China’s New Petrochemicals Logic
By John Richardson WINNING approval for petrochemicals projects in China no longer seems to be as straightforward as it used to be because of increasing anger over the state of the environment and new economic priorities. The stalled paraxylene (PX) project at in the city of Kunming, in Sichuan province in southern China, is […]
European Demographics Challenge US Export Assumptions
By John Richardson US feedstock advantages appear to provide an almost overwhelming case for a big wave of cracker and downstream investments, particularly in polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP). In contrast, Europe is struggling with much-higher feedstock costs and low economic growth, resulting in the possibility of many more capacity closures. Only last week, for […]
Indonesia Petchem Investments
By John Richardson THE project activity in Indonesia, as the slide above, from our ICIS training Introduction to Petrochemicals Part I training programme, is a little worrying But there is one slight problem here: Demand. In the case of Indonesia, this excellent article in Forbes magazine from economist Jesse Colombo points out that China’s huge […]
US Labour Shortages Threaten Petchem Projects
By John Richardson WHEN is apparent bad news actually good news? In the case of the US, where a serious shortage of manpower might result in at least the delay in some petrochemicals projects and perhaps, even, hopefully, some cancellations. “For years there has been minimal construction activity in the US and so most workers […]
Germany’s Long-term Economic Challenges
Source of graph: Eurostat By John Richardson AS delegates gather for this year’s European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) meeting in Berlin, which takes place on 5-9 October, it might be tempting to believe that Europe has turned the corner. Supporting this argument has been the release of lots of positive economy data recently. For example, […]
Europe’s Economic “Recovery”
By John Richardson EUROZONE GDP expanded 0.3% in the second quarter of this year and it will probably also have expanded in Q3. As a result, if you view the end of a recession as two consecutive quarters of positive growth, the champagne corks should perhaps be popping. Europe’s politicians have seized on the […]
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