By John Richardson INDIA is at risk of squandering its demographic dividend, warned investment bank Espirito Santo when it wrote in a September 2013 note: If India continues its current path it will face a catastrophic shortage of jobs, creating a young and angry population, and with it conditions for social unrest and economic disaster. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Is Sending In The Bulldozers
By John Richardson YOU can spend as much time as you like crunching petrochemicals supply and demand data, but in the end, what will matter the most in China in determining the strength of markets during 2014 will, surely, be the availability of credit. This was starkly underlined by this New York Times article, which […]
India Gas Price Breakthrough
By John Richardson DEMOGRAPHICS can drive chemicals demand in the right direction, provided the correct government policies are in place. India’s demographics are much better than China’s, as this data from the CIA Factbook indicate. For instance, as of 2013 India’s median age was 26.7 years compared with 36.3 years in China. India’s birth rate […]
China Labour Markets And Automation
By John Richardson CHINA’s blue collar workers are in a very strong position, as we discussed in our 19 December post. They are benefiting from an ageing population that has already resulted in a decline in the size of China’s working population. Thanks to the laws of supply and demand, wage rates are going up […]
Australia, China And “Social Accounting”
By John Richardson WESTERN Australia is still in the midst of the tail end of a golden economic sweet spot, thanks to a once-in-many-generations resources boom. People are not only benefiting from the fantastic money that is being made by working in the iron ore, gold mines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants. All those […]
ExxonMobil Highlights US Growth Challenge
By John Richardson WHEN somebody very senior in the petrochemicals industry makes a bold statement – one that pulls no punches – it is worth taking note. And so it is worth reading in full what Stephen Pryor, ExxonMobil Chemical president, said at the opening ceremony for ExxonMobil’s latest Singapore petchems complex on 8 January. […]
Thailand’s Political Crisis Threatens ASEAN-China Growth
By John Richardson THE political crisis in Thailand might take several more years to solve, if it can be solved at all, a chemicals industry executive told the blog on its recent trip to Bangkok. We very much hope that he is wrong otherwise the victims of the crisis could be many people in Thailand […]
China Slows Down
By John Richardson CHINA’S economy appears to have slowed down. Evidence of the lost momentum was provided by manufacturing purchasing manufacturers’ indexes (PMIs) released last week and the release on Monday of service sector PMIs, which all showed lower growth in December. The HSBC service sector PMI was at its lowest level since August 2011. […]
Researching China Credit And Growth
By John Richardson A lot of the focus in polyethylene (PE) markets at the moment is on supply and on what impact this might have on the key China market during 2014. Crunching this data will always remain a crucial part of assessing all petrochemicals markets, but, in China, do we need other tools as […]
Gas, Gas, And Perhaps Even More Gas
By John Richardson THE global petrochemicals industry is stepping on the gas as it accelerates both capacity expansions and the restructuring of existing assets. Apologies for the pun. In the US, of course, some 25m tonnes/year of ethylene capacity is due to be added, most of it after 2017, thanks to big volumes of cheap […]
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