By John Richardson A DEMOGRAPHIC dividend is only a demographic dividend if you can create enough jobs for most of your young people. That’s one of India’s biggest challenges. During the economic Supercycle, cashing in on this dividend was relatively straightforward. If India had managed to sort out its restrictive labour practices, a sometimes nightmarish […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Dear Mr Abbott, What On Earth Have You Done?
By John Richardson INNOVATION has to be the cornerstone of Australia’s economy from now on because of these two reasons: 1.) The China-led resources boom is over and so Australia can no longer just dig stuff out of the ground and send it to China. 2.) Australia, like all developed countries, has an ageing population. […]
China Consumer Confidence “The Worst In 17 Years”
By John Richardson LAST year, the blog was told that business at some high-end restaurants in Beijing had fallen by as much as 90% because of the government’s crackdown on corruption. And China’s top military officials are scared to even park their cars in the vicinity of high-end restaurants in case they are accused of […]
Australia At An Economic Crossroads
By John Richardson THERE is no such thing as level playing field when it comes to the chemicals industry and, for that matter, probably any other industry. China has long-subsidised many of its industries through soft loans for new projects, cheap land, cheap electricity and tax breaks in special economic zones. Some projects in Southeast […]
Thailand’s Coup: The Economic Suspension Has Gone
By John Richardson WE are going to feel every political, social and economic bump in the road from now on because the suspension on the proverbial automobile has gone. No longer can Asian economies compensate for their domestic problems in the way they did during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, which was largely through raising […]
Thailand’s Military Coup: The Implications
By John Richardson AS THAILAND wakes up to the shock that Tuesday’s declaration of martial law has morphed into a full-scale military coup, you have to ask this question: How is this going to solve anything? The imposition of martial law was designed to bring the two political sides together in attempt to broker a […]
China Reforms: The Global Implications
By John Richardson IT can feel logical to assume that the fundamentals of the petrochemicals business in Asia haven’t really changed. When you think about it, apart from a brief interruption in the region’s success story during the Asian Financial crisis in 1997-1998, everything has been pretty much plain sailing. And in retrospect, the severity […]
Demographics Threaten China Property Collapse
By John Richardson THE persistent weakness in China’s petrochemicals markets had mainly been caused by problems in the country’s property sector, according to many delegates on the sidelines of last week’s Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in Pattaya, Thailand. Here are some worrying numbers that help to explain this view: China’s real-estate sales declined by […]
Martial Law In Thailand: What It Means
By John Richardson SO far so good is the interpretation that some petrochemicals industry executives have placed on the long-running political crisis in Thailand. Despite the local economy being close to a recession after GDP contracted by 2.1% in Q1 of this year, the executives argue that: Most of the petrochemicals that Thailand produces are […]
How To Measure Modi’s Success
By John Richardson WINNING an election is one thing and governing is entirely different – as the hopeless Tony Abbott is discovering in Australia (more in a later blog post). We sincerely hope that Narendra Modi proves to be a great deal more competent than Abbott, who has confirmed our fears. Modi’s first budget, which […]
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