By John Richardson WHAT a fantastic World Cup and Germany were deserved winners. Their flair, dedication, organisation, attention to detail and team spirit were great to see. But in Gideon Rachman’s very thoughtful piece in Tuesday’s Financial Times, he highlights some of the points we’ve been making over Germany and its economy over the last […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s Q2 GDP Number Is Irrelevant
By John Richardson CHINA is due to release its second-quarter GDP growth number today (Wednesday) and so the analytical frenzy is already well under way. For example, AFP writes in this article: “Chinese growth failed to accelerate in the second quarter despite government stimulus measures, an AFP survey predicts, with the world’s second-largest economy forecast […]
India’s Budget: The Toilet Test
By John Richardson IT was fantastic news to hear that Narendra Modi, in his first budget as Prime Minister, has repeated his pledge of ensuring that every Indian has access to a toilet by 2019. But will he follow through on this pledge? We sincerely hope so as tackling this one big issue should define […]
China: How Conventional Wisdom Becomes Conventional Wisdom
By John Richardson HOW does conventional wisdom – i.e. the opinion of the majority – become conventional wisdom? This is a subject that the blog pondered over the last few days as it wandered around Euro Disney. Unfortunately, Mickey, Donald and his pals weren’t able to give us an answer. The reason why we dwelled […]
China: GDP And Forgetting What You Already Know
By John Richardson THE blog has a terrible confession to make: We sometimes get it very badly wrong. How’s that for modesty? A couple of months ago we got it very badly wrong when we kept waffling on and on, in post after post, about whether China would hit GDP growth of 3-4%, 5%, 6% […]
China: Half Of All Loans Collateralised By Land, Real Estate
By John Richardson BEN Bernanke, who as at that time chairman of the Fed, warned in July 2007 that the cost of the US sub-prime crisis would amount to $100bn. To be honest, we struggled to find a final estimate for the final total cost of the crisis, but these words from Wikipedia give just […]
China Coal-To-Olefins: Water Not An Issue
By John Richardson CONVENTIONAL wisdom has it that the water issue stands in the way of the growth of the coal-to-olefins (CTO) industry in China. The process consumes a lot of water – between 15-20 tonnes for every tonne of olefins produced – which compares with 0.80-2.17 tonnes of water for every tonne of oil […]
China Commodities Fraud: The Global Implications
By John Richardson An eerie calm has descended over financial and commodity markets with volatility at a record low. The calm is eerie because it reminds us of the build-up to September 2008. Back then, not one single mainstream economist saw the sub-prime-led collapse coming and at the moment, the same feels as if it […]
China Polyethylene Demand Up By 25%
By John Richardson WHEN something appears to be good to be true, it usually is. Back in 2009, China’s demand for polyethylene (PE) increased by more than 20% – way above the increase in GDP – because of just about the biggest injection of credit into an economy in history, as our top chart illustrates. […]
Malaysia: All That Glitters Is Not Gold
By John Richardson ANYONE who visits Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia’s capital city, might well come away with the impression that everything is well with the country. The hotels are heaving as are the restaurants, bars and shopping centres. So are the stalls on Petaling Street where, remarkably, it is possible to buy a luxury, top-of-the range […]
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