By John Richardson EVERY $10 decline in the iron ore price knocks more than $2bn off the annual revenues of Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billion and around $250m from those of Anglo American. We can see a similar dynamic playing out in chemicals and polymers markets, but on a scale that has yet to […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s Polyester Crisis: The Global Implications
By John Richardson EVERYWHERE you turn it looks bad in China, especially in the polyester value chain. “So has it always been in polyester. Because of its ownership structure, capacities up and down the chain are often out of sync,” said an industry observer. “Hence, the current big overhang in purified terephthalic acid (PTA) capacity […]
China Exceeds US 20th Century Cement Output In Just Two Years
By John Richardson CHINA produced more cement in 2011 and 2012 than the US produced in the whole of the 20th century. Yes, that’s right, China produced more cement in just two years than the States produced in 100 years. Statistics such as this leave the blog scratching its head as to how anybody could […]
China Polyethylene: Fitting 11% Into 6%
By John Richardson ELEVEN per cent apparent demand growth in polyethylene (PE) in China will not go into estimates of real demand growth at no more than 6%. This is our concern based on the latest set of data on the market (see the above slide). As you can see: Apparent demand growth (imports minus […]
Finding A Home For US Polyethylene Expansions
By John Richardson EVEN if you take a benign view of the future of the US economy (which, separately, we think is the wrong view), the planned increases in US polyethylene (PE) capacity still raise this very important question: Where on earth will all of this stuff go? The chart above illustrates our assessment of […]
China: “The Dog Ate My Homework” Won’t Do
By John Richardson TWO Chinese plastic processing companies are in financial difficulties because they have used raw-material purchases for speculation, a polyolefins industry source told the blog. “The companies are in trouble because they resold their inventories in order to invest directly in real estate, or indirectly in real estate via the shadow-banking system. This […]
China’s Economic Transformation: Free Webinar
Last May’s China Transformation webinar with Paul Hodges attracted great interest. We are therefore holding s free follow-up webinar on Tuesday 9 September. As before, it will be run twice, to allow blog readers in different regions to attend. This ‘China Economic Transformation II’ webinar will cover these key areas: •The likely impact on global […]
China, The US Stock Market And Overvaluation
By John Richardson THE US economist, Robert Shiller, has a very good track record in identifying when bubbles have become inflated. For example, as early as 2003, he foresaw the dangers of the US housing bubble. And so the blog thinks it is worth listening to him when he warns that: The US stock market […]
China And Starting From Entirely The Wrong Position
By John Richardson THE majority of people analysing data on China’s economy are still getting it wrong. They think that the worst the numbers get, the more likely it is that the government will panic. Predictions are widespread, therefore, of an interest rate cut and a reduction in the bank reserve requirement later this year. […]
Modi: Great Words, All The Best, But We Are Watching You
By John Richardson IT IS once again fantastic news that Narendra Modi has highlighted the need to improve sanitation in India, as he also did last month. During his National Day speech last week, India’s prime minister called on listeners to join him in a nationwide campaign to improve sanitation, noting that many women, lacking […]
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