By John Richardson HERE is a quote for you: “Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.” This supports the argument we have been making over the last two months that human nature matters as much as data in helping us decide where oil prices are heading. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Too Late For Iron Ore, But Not For Petrochemicals
By John Richardson YOU might be familiar with the phrase “putting all your eggs in one basket”. It is the kind of phrase that you learn at your mother’s knee, and yet CEOS seem to have forgotten what they were surely taught from a very early age. The chart below should take your breath away. It […]
Crude Oil: How To Avoid A 2015 Budget Disaster
By John Richardson IF I knew the outcome of today’s crucial OPEC meeting in Vienna well, of course, I wouldn’t have to write this blog post to make a living. But what I do know is that oil markets, now that the Fed stimulus is being withdrawn, are beginning to function far better than they […]
US Polyethylene’s Weak Pricing Power
By John Richardson HERE is the thing: Petrochemicals pricing for just about every product in every region is usually pretty much set by crude oil and yet in the US, the correlation between polyethylene (PE) pricing and oil has been just 32% since 2010, according to Wells Fargo analyst Frank Mitsch. An ICIS analysis for […]
China: Your Four-Point Guide To The Interest Rate Cut
By John Richardson LATE last year China’s government launched one final round of old-style economic stimulus so they could build-up political support ahead of the boldest set of reforms to the economy in at least 20 years. This was clearly, therefore, a tactical decision, as I argued at the time. But a lot of other […]
China And The US: History Repeats Itself
By John Richardson THE history of the economic rise of the United States during the 19th and 20th centuries is littered with instances of financial crises, oversupply in manufacturing and infrastructure and government stimulus programmes – most notably, the New Deal. Roll forward to China in the last two decades of the 20th century and […]
Getting Started On Rebuilding Your Company Strategy
By John Richardson THE New Normal is a journey of discovery, as my colleague Paul Hodges pointed out in his blog post yesterday. As this latest global economic crisis develops, it is vital that we start the journey otherwise many of us will end up out of work. Some chemicals companies will simply not survive […]
Oil At $100 Was “A Rich World Luxury”
By John Richardson THE attitude towards lower oil prices in the developing world is “bring it on”, as it is an opportunity for hundreds of millions more people to escape poverty (see the above diagram). Once people start earning, say, $3 a day (less than what those of us lucky enough to live in the […]
Why Should China Be Any Different From The US?
By John Richardson THE complacent, yesterday’s wisdom about China is that it will remain a major importer of lots of petrochemicals for many years to come. If you have already stuck your neck out to support a project that will be substantially reliant on exports to China, it might feel like the right choice to […]
Japan: “I Really Don’t Know How We Go Forward”
By John Richardson THERE is no debate. Everyone agrees that Japan simply must overcome its demographic challenges. Here are a few sobering facts which indicate the scale of these challenges: Should current trends continue, Japan’s population will have fallen to 87 million from its current size of 127 million by 2060, according to this article […]
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