By John Richardson THE chat below provides some very instructive reading as it shows that: Since 2000, overall real consumption in US polyethylene (PE) has fallen from around 12.5m tonnes to 12.3m tonnes (real consumption is domestic production plus imports, and then minus exports, with end-year adjustments made for any inventory distortions). Low-density PE […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The New Global Financial Crisis: Emerging Market Bonds
By John Richardson EXACTLY how the new global financial crisis will gather momentum is becoming clearer by the day. Greatly adding to this clarity was the latest Bank for International Settlements (BIS) quarterly report, which was released earlier this week. The BIS warned that: Off-shore lending in US dollars had soared to $9 trillion, and, […]
The World Is Turning Upside Down
By John Richardson A COMMON view is that Asia’s petrochemicals markets are merely suffering from a temporary destocking phrase, driven by the collapse in crude-oil prices. So when crude oil prices settle down, everything will be fine. Many people also assume that the current widespread “buyers’ strike” is the result of seasonal factors – i.e. […]
Asian Chemicals Markets Panic Is About China’s Lending
Note to my readers: I had planned to write about China’s polyethylene (PE) market today, but have decided that it is, first of all, important to further explain the reasons why Asian chemicals markets are in such distress at the moment. (I will, instead, focus on PE tomorrow). Oil prices are tumbling because real price […]
Asia’s Petchems Decline: Reject Tried And Trusted Analysis
By John Richardson ASIA’S petrochemicals traders and producers have on the whole done fantastically well over the last 20 years by sticking with tried-and-trusted ways of assessing markets. It is very tempting, therefore, to think that today’s weak demand will soon be put right through just a few production cutbacks. Last week, my colleagues at […]
September 2008: How History Is Repeating Itself
By John Richardson WE know that weak growth in China, Europe and the US will have a major negative impact on the global economy in 2015. But does this really mean a new global financial crisis? Won’t the world’s economy instead just splutter along as it has done, pretty much, since the last crisis in […]
Another Failed US “Wealth Effect”
By John Richardson HERE are some alarming facts about the US economy: The wealth of the average American tops $301,000 per adult, which left the US in fourth place in the latest Credit Suisse Global Wealth report. But median wealth was a mere $44,900 per adult. That was only good enough for 19th place in […]
Europe’s Policy Vacuum Means You Have To Write Off 2015
By John Richardson EUROPE is going nowhere and, so like China, can only be a drag on global growth in 2015 as we enter a new global financial crisis. “The legacy of the crisis is affecting [EU] member states to different degrees but spill overs through trade and confidence are large,” said the European Commission […]
China’s Contribution To The New Global Financial Crisis
By John Richardson YOU will be committing career suicide if you hold on to the idea that China’s problems only amount to a lack of “old style” economic stimulus – and that a bit of old style stimulus is just around the corner. It is essential that you therefore waste no more time by listening […]
Chemicals Demand Is Not Going To Return To Normal
By John Richardson EUROPEAN cracker operators are rushing to snap-up naphtha prices before prices rise again, reports my colleague Nigel Davis, in another of his excellent Insight articles. “The lower crude price seems to be driving downstream demand. Europe’s crackers are said to be running flat out,” adds Nigel, who has tapped into the market intelligence […]