By John Richardson THERE is a very risky theory that I have picked up in my conversations with Asian polyolefin industry players over the past few days: Strong underlying demand growth in China, low stock levels held by the country’s plastic converters and a stabilisation of oil prices will result in a firm recovery […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Versus The EU: What A Contrast
By John Richardson IT is worth comparing what is happening in China today with what is happening in the EU. First of all, in China we are seeing: A political leadership that has been honest enough to admit that China got it wrong in the past. This has led to a new economic and social […]
China: Again, Please Listen To Us: “No Change In Direction”
By John Richardson China’s Premier, Li Keqiang, could not have been clearer in comments that he made on Monday during a meeting with some of the country’s top corporate leaders. He told business leaders that the government aimed to create at least 10 million jobs in 2015, reported the China Daily – a state-owned newspaper. […]
New Silk Road Part 2: How China Will Win
Here is the second part of my thinking on what China’s New Silk Road means for the global chemicals industry. Part One appeared last Thursday. By John Richardson PER capital GDP in Yunnan province in China’s southwest was just Yuan 25,083 ($4,050) in 2014, which made it the 29th poorest of the country’s 31 […]
India’s Republic Day: Just Think What Can Be Achieved
By John Richardson TODAY is Republic Day in India and so I hope that what comes next will not be seen as overly negative. But I think it is essential, as the New Normal develops, that we have an open and frank debate about the biggest economic challenge and opportunity that we all face over […]
Oil Prices: Did You Heed All The Warnings?
By John Richardson THE $30 a barrel price of crude at or below which some Asian naphtha cracker operators could be forced to exit the business is an increasing possibility. Here is why: This January’s stockpile of crude in the US is the highest for more than 80 years, said the US-based Energy Information Administration […]
How China’s New Silk Road Is Reshaping Global Chemicals
By John Richardson THE red line on the map below, from the Washington Post, shows the world’s longest-ever freight-train journey, which began on 18 November in Yiwu, the largest wholesale centre for small consumer goods in China. It ended 21 days later, in December, in Madrid. The distance that the train covered — more than […]
China: Counting The Cost Of Wrong Analysis
By John Richardson VERY few people listened when I warned in November 2013 that China’s economy was about to enter a “New Normal” as a result of the biggest about-turn in economic policy that China had seen for at least 20 years. A few more people took heed of a clear indication in January 2014 that this momentous, world-shaking […]
Africa: How To Seize Another Opportunity
By John Richardson WHEN you’ve finished renegotiating with your lenders, your shareholders and your bondholders about what the collapse of oil prices means for your chemicals company, you will, hopefully, have a strategy to come through this crisis more or less in one piece. The next stage is, of course, the implementation of the new […]
China Would Be The Only Winner From A Price War
By John Richardson IT IS dangerously wrong to still think of China as just a cheap, copycat low-value manufacturing nation. Yes, cheap, agreed, and to begin with, as was the case with the US, it has copied other countries’ technologies. But forget low value, as China’s extraordinary growth in the smartphones business indicates. Eventually in […]