By John Richardson ANYBODY who invests in the Indian stock market might well regard today as a buying opportunity ahead of tomorrow’s announcement of India’s latest budget. Or, of course, it might be an opportunity to go short if you think that India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, will disappoint the business world through the content […]
Asian Chemical Connections
“Bad Deflation” Set To Dominate Global Economy
By John Richardson THERE has been a great deal of discussion lately about the differences between “good” and “bad deflation”. Good deflation, we are told, includes the fall in oil prices that has put more money in the pockets of consumers and has enabled the Indonesian and other governments to roll-back wasteful fuel subsidies. You can […]
Following In The Footsteps Of China Is Impossible
By John Richardson THE chart above shows how China’s consumption of polypropylene (PP) rose from 4.6 million tonnes in 2000 to 19 million tonnes in 2014. It also illustrates how, in the process, China’s percentage share of global PP consumption jumped from 15% in 2000 to 32% in 2014. Meanwhile, imports also rose during the […]
China Peak Steel And Chemicals Demand May Have Arrived
By John Richardson EVERYONE involved in the iron ore business must be very worried about the recent speech by the new chairman of the China Iron & Steel Association. “Under the ‘new normal’ China’s iron and steel consumption has already entered into the peak zone,” he told his audience. China’s steel consumption will peak at […]
China Jobs Squeeze: Why It Is Happening And What It Means
Jobs, jobs and jobs are the three main priorities for politicians everywhere. In the first of my series of country and region-specific posts on this subject, I look at what this means for China. By John Richardson SOME of those who thought that China’s investment-led growth was a sound long-term way forward are now saying: […]
Where Have All The Jobs Gone?
By John Richardson POLITICIANS everywhere know that their chances of staying in office depend on how many jobs they can at the very least prevent from disappearing down the economic plughole. Ideally, they also want to be able to lay credible claims that their “long term vision” has created lots of new employment across the […]
Please Plan Now For A Yuan Devaluation
By John Richardson IF YOU haven’t already planned for the possibility of a substantial drop in the value of China’s Yuan then you have no more time to lose. I suggest every chemicals company that finds itself in this situation should get down to work immediately. The hard questions about why nobody in your company […]
China By Itself Is Not A Strategy
By John Richardson SOMETIMES a bit of data is worth many thousands of words – and so my choice of chart for today. It shows that in one major petrochemical, polyethylene (PE), China’s imports in 2014 continued to hugely overshadow shipments to every other major importing region of the world (the chart above excludes Japan, […]
Stand Back And Think: Can This Oil-Price Rally Really Last?
By John Richardson THE talk in oil markets right now is largely about falling US rig counts and how this has resulted in tighter supply. But it is very important to note that this focus on the rig count is a recent phenomenon. “People have only started paying attention to the oil rig count in […]
China After The Lunar New Year: Your Five-Point Guide
By John Richardson HERE is a five-point guide to what will happen in China after the Lunar New Year is over (most of China will be only holiday from 18-24 February): The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) now seems almost certain to further reduce interest rates and the bank reserve requirement (RRR). If you recall […]
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