By John Richardson IT IS human nature not to want to admit you are wrong. Nobody likes owning up to mistakes. What is instead a lot easier is to look for someone else to blame when things start going very badly wrong against all your earlier expectations. A good example might just have occurred in […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Collapse Of China “Carry Trade” Threatens A Yuan Devaluation
By John Richardson CONVENTIONAL wisdom, as everyone should have discovered over the last 16 months, has a horrible habit of being completely wrong. Today, therefore, if anybody tells you this, “China might widen the band within which the Yuan trades against the US, but, other than that, it won’t allow a sharp depreciation of its […]
China January Data Concludes The Debate
By John Richardson THE latest data from China further underlines what I have been arguing since early last year – that it is at the centre of a Great Unwinding that will have deep and lasting global economic consequences. Here is the data: Chinese imports, primarily of raw materials, fell by 19.9% in January. Exports […]
India’s Search For A New Growth Model
By John Richardson THE great news is that China is moving towards a new, and potentially very effective, economic growth model. Can we say the same for India? The reason why I pose this question is because, since Narendra Modi has been elected as Prime Minister, a lot of my Indian contacts have talked about […]
Australia: This Is No Way To Run A Country
By John Richardson TONY Abbott has survived an attempt to remove him as Australia’s Prime Minister. Do you really think this will bring to an end the political instability that has resulted in four changes in PM since 2007? This really is a rhetorical question because anybody who lives and works in Australia, as I do, […]
A Perfect World? If Only It Were So
By John Richardson IN A perfect world everything always turns out for the best in the end. And so quite a few people who argued that high oil prices were good for the global economy, as they said that expensive crude pointed to robust consumption growth well ahead of demand, are now arguing the exact […]
China’s Damage Limitation: The Reserve Requirement Cut
By John Richardson DAMAGE limitation is the motive behind China’s decision cut its reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5% to 19.5%. (The RRR is the amount of money that banks have to set aside against this lending, and so the lower the percentage the more the capacity to lend). The decision, which was announced yesterday […]
Global Economy: “When Elephants Fight, The Grass Suffers”
HERE are some very disturbing statistics: Over the last five years, US oil and gas companies have issued bonds and taken out loans that are together worth $1.2 trillion, according to data from Dealogic. This has created at least 200,000 jobs in oil and gas companies in the States, according to the US Bureau of […]
Take Stock And Plan For the Post-New Year China
By John Richardson NOBODY involved in the Asian chemicals industry is likely to have been surprised by Saturday’s announcement that January’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slipped into negative territory for the first time in more than two years. The reason is that many people involved in the business have seen disappointing sales volumes in […]
Friday’s Oil-Price Surge: Here Is The Right Context
By John Richardson THE right historical context is crucial if you want to gain a real understanding of today’s oil market. It is, for example, crucial that you put Friday’s 8% surge in oil prices into this correct context. This involves taking the reasons given for this dramatic turnaround with a very large pinch of […]
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