By John Richardson HERE is some good news to start the week: The latest Bank of England “stress test” for UK banks includes this scenario for China: China’s real GDP growth falls to just 1.7% in Q4 of this year. Chinese residential property prices trough in 2016 at 35% below their level at end-2014. Why […]
Asian Chemical Connections
IMF New Study Highlights Critical Role Of Demographics
By John Richardson IT is fantastic news that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted ageing populations as a major drag on global growth in its latest World Economic Outlook update. The IMF warns that employment growth will decline in both advanced and emerging economies compared to the rates seen before the global financial crisis. […]
Petrochemicals And The End Of The Commodities Supercyle
By John Richardson YESTERDAY I suggested that a “permanent study group” should be established by the US petrochemicals industry, and very probably industries in other regions, that would focus solely on all the evolving implications of the New Normal. So what should be this study group’s first topic for consideration? How about the implications of […]
US Needs A New Normal “Permanent Study Group”
By John Richardson A LOT of the discussions taking place in and around last week’s American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers International Petrochemical Conference (IPC) in San Antonio, Texas, was, of course, around oil prices. Lower crude prices means less of a production cost advantage for the US petrochemicals industry, which is predominantly based on natural […]
China: Time To Stop Using The 18th Century Spinning Loom
By John Richardson FOR a long while now I have been arguing that China will do “much, much more with much less”. Four years ago, when Paul Hodges and I first outlined the concept of the New Normal, we highlighted how doing more with less in China would profoundly reshape the nature and strength of […]
China’s Leaders Imbued With An “Iron Will”
By John Richardson BEFORE you can start dealing with a problem, you obviously have to acknowledge that there is a problem in the first place. So, over the last few days, I have been heartened by a change in tone in analysis of China’s economic slowdown. Instead of repeating the old falsehood that, “all we […]
Oil Price Chaos: What It Means For The Planning Process
By John Richardson FIRST of all, we were told that $100 a barrel, or thereabouts, was the natural price for oil. And then we were told this after the price collapse: “Not to worry, this is just a temporary supply glut. Output cuts will soon be sufficient to restore the price back to the region […]
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