By John Richardson IT IS clear that the Remain campaigners were not exaggerating the short term impact of a successful Leave vote during the EU referendum campaign. They have instead very probably underestimated the immediate effect on the UK and global economies. The problem is that the referendum result came at a time of what was […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Brexit The Result Of Diminished Economic Opportunities
By John Richardson THE above diagram is just a sample of the complexity facing Britain, the rest of the EU and the global economy following last Thursday’s victory by the Leave campaign. And once you have studied the Credit Suisse diagram above, consider the following: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has suggested that the Scottish parliament could […]
Britain’s EU Exit Vote Reflects Lack of Trust In Expert Opinion
By John Richardson MOST politicians, central bank governors, economists and business leaders told everyone that there was no way that the US housing market could drag the world into a global financial crisis. Then we were told that China’s economy could not possibly slow down, and that its vast investment in manufacturing capacity during […]
US Economy: More Of The Same Will Not Work…
By John Richardson US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s solution for the failed monetary stimulus policies of the last seven years? More of the same, which is a further signal to investors desperate for yield that they have little choice but to spend even more money on risky assets. Don’t blame the investors, by […]
Brexit, Other Uncertainties Undermine Seasonal Pricing Confidence
By John Richardson FOR many, many years, seasonality has been a great guide to short term pricing patterns in Asian chemicals and polymer markets. Take high-density polyethylene (HDPE) injection grade as just one example, which is used to make a wide range of finished goods, including pallets, crates and food containers: Over the last ten […]
China Reformers Regain The Upper Hand
By John Richardson THE above chart indicates that the reformers have regained influence in China: Whilst new loans from state-owned banks in May beat analysts’ expectations by a big distance, total social financing (TSF), which is the measure of all forms of new lending, was substantially down compared with the previous month. The reason for lower […]
German Bond Yields Go Negative On End Of Economic Supercycle
By John Richardson OIL markets remain fundamentally long. There is little to support the notion that the recent price rally has anything to do with anything but confidence that US interest rates will be lower for longer than had been previously expected. A key catalyst for a correction will be whether or not the US […]
Trade Rhetoric Worsens As China Becomes Net PTA Exporter
By John Richardson TIME Magazine made the “Chinese Worker” runner-up in its 2009 Person of the Year contest (by the way the winner was Ben Bernanke, the then chairman of the US Federal Reserve). It was the hard graft of these workers, and lots of government spending, that Time said had enabled China to achieve its […]
Emerging Markets: 67.7 More Years To Catch Up With US
By John Richardson IF I had a dollar in my pocket for every time I had read or heard the phrase “the rise of the middle classes in the emerging markets” in the context that this was a tremendous opportunity for the global economy, I would be pretty rich by now. And I would be […]
China PP Import Decline Challenges Global Markets
By John Richardson THE latest data on China’s polypropylene (PP) imports should set alarm bells ringing in polyolefin company board rooms: China’s PP production was up by 14% in January-April 2016 versus the same four months last year, with imports falling by 20% on the same year-on-year basis. January-April imports in 2016 were at their […]
Jump to page: