By John Richardson THE OPEC decision to cut oil production for the first time since 2008, if indeed it does amount to a real cut in production, could end up being self-defeating. As I discussed last month, US shale oil production efficiency continues to go quite literally through the roof of most forecasters expectations. Between […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Global Trade: What The New Dynamics Mean For Petchems
By John Richardson THE result of this year’s US presidential election may well be determined by one issue – trade – as yesterday’s first presidential debate perhaps indicated. These are incredibly dangerous times for the global economy, and with it, of course, the chemicals industry. It is not just in the US, but also in […]
What Exclusion From China’s One Belt, One Road Looks Like
By John Richardson IS the whole world really turning again free trade? No, if you consider the potential improvement in trade flows between the 65 mainly developing countries which make up China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative. What we could instead see is the creation of the world’s biggest free-trade bloc, accounting for 40% […]
Paraxylene: Another Chemicals World Turned Upside Down
By John Richardson THE PARAXYLENE (PX) industry is enjoying an unprecedented period of demand growth, according to the above chart from our recently updated Supply & Demand database: Between 2000 and 2016, global demand for PX will have jumped by 135%. China will be the major driver because of its role as the workshop of […]
Polyethylene: A World Turned Upside Down
By John Richardson THE recent history of polyethylene (PE) shows a global competitive landscape very different from that which most people expected two years ago. Two years ago, we were told that the natural price for oil was $100/bbl because of limited supply and robust demand growth. The consensus view was also that whilst costly oil meant that […]
Make Global Trade War In 2017 Your Base Case Scenario
By John Richardson WE are trapped in a cycle of economic policymaking failure that has already led to a retreat in global free trade. What happens next could well be a global trade war as soon as next year. The computer models built by the US Federal Reserve said that there was no systemic risk […]
The US And China: Saudi Arabia’s Big Picture Oil Strategy
By John Richardson THE above chart should tell you a great deal of what you need to know about Saudi Aramco’s interest in buying the LyondellBasell Industries (LBI) refinery that’s located in the Houston Ship Canal in the US: Between January 2007 and October of this year, the Eagle Ford shale-oil field in Texas will have seen the efficiency […]
China And Iran: Reshaping Global Polyester Trade
By John Richardson IN TODAY’S world you have to start with political, social and macroeconomic factors to help build your map of global chemicals trade flows over the next ten years. You next need to consider the old standard measures of feedstock availability, access to technology and logistics costs etc. Why are these traditional ways of […]
Had Enough Of Experts? Fair Enough, But Facts Still Matter
By John Richardson MANY millions of people have had enough of the political and economic establishment in the West because: It failed to predict the US sub-prime and European sovereign debt crises, resulting in people losing their homes and/or their jobs. It has dragging us into a surreal world of negative interest rates. Years of ultra-low interest […]
Saudi Aramco In A Low Oil Price World
By John Richardson NEWS of plans to list 5% of Saudi Aramco is obviously some four months old. There is thus a danger that in the welter of other later events, the long term significance of this decision ends up being overlooked. That would be a bad mistake in your scenario planning. Funding from the IPO could be […]
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