By John Richardson ALL SORTS of experts keep telling us that identifying the world’s problems is incredibly complex. But it, is in, fact, incredibly simple – all you have to do is to meet Basic Needs such as coping with ageing populations and providing sufficient water, electricity, shelter, healthcare and education. Satisfying these needs does, however, require the […]
Asian Chemical Connections
India’s Currency Reforms: Potential Lehman Bros Moment
By John Richardson IN normal global economic, social and geopolitical circumstances, Narendra Modi’s decision to overnight remove 86% of the cash from the Indian economy would have been a major risk. But these are not the normal global circumstances that most of us are familiar with. They are instead very much like the 1930s. This is why India could end […]
Success In 2017: Move Quickly from Denial To Acceptance
By John Richardson COUNTING the deckchairs on the deck of the Titanic as it heads towards the iceberg is the exact equivalent of assuming that 2017 oil prices will almost be entirely determined by whether or not OPEC and non-OPEC comply with their production cutbacks. We might of course steer around the iceberg, but, as […]
Economic And Geopolitical Chaos In 2017
By John Richardson MOST of the experts believed that Remain was going to win the vote on whether or not Britain would stay in the EU. Such was the strength of the consensus that even Nigel Farage, then leader of UKIP, seemed ready to concede defeat on the night of the vote. And well into […]
The Future Isn’t What The Dow Jones Is Telling Us
By John Richardson WHAT for you is the most important chart, the one on the left or the one on the right? If you are a chemicals producer rather than stockmarket investor, I would suggest it is the one on the right. The chart on the left shows the rise of the Dow Jones Industrial […]
Polyethylene Pricing, Profits In 2017: Three Scenarios
By John Richardson WE are in entirely uncharted territory because the West looks as if it is about to abandon the economic and geopolitical policy consensus that has been in place since the Second World War. There is, for example, the collateral damage that might well result from the president-elect’s domestic stimulus policies – a […]
Bricklaying In Australia And Oil Prices: Important Similarities
By John Richardson THE bricklayer came around to my house three years ago, quickly surveyed the extent of the job, drew a sharp breath, and said, “It’s going to cost you at least Aus$4,000.” And that was after a four-week wait to get a quote. How times have changed. Last week, the same bricklayer popped around […]
How Free Floating The Yuan Could Accelerate A Global Trade War
By John Richardson THERE is a 50% chance that the Yuan will become a freely trade currency in 2017 in response to the US signalling its willingness to start a global trade war, says Societe Generale. If Donald Trump pedals back on his rhetoric and/or Congress gets in the way of his plans and we avoid a trade […]
The World In 2020 – An Update On Our Forecasts In ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’
All of us would love to be able to see into the future. And five years after the publication of ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal: How the Ageing of the Western BabyBoomers is Changing Demand Patterns, Again‘, it seems timely to review its 10 predictions about how the world will look in 2020: A […]
OPEC Cutbacks: The Case Against Any Major Impact
By John Richardson OPEC’s decision to cut production could well turn out to have no significant impact on the direction of oil markets in 2017 and beyond. I believe that everything still points to weaker, rather than stronger, crude prices, barring a major geopolitical crisis. We are very likely heading for is a global recession in […]
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