As immigration declines, labour costs are set to rise. Companies could thus shut down, leave Britain or invest in more automation if they decide to stay in the UK By John Richardson THE BRITISH town of Slough has an unemployment rate of 1.4% compared with a nationwide average of 4.7%, with the town’s average weekly […]
Asian Chemical Connections
End Of China’s Latest Credit Bubble: Implications For Chemicals Demand
By John Richardson THE effect on the global economy of China’s slowdown as it enters its next credit cycle is something I discussed on Friday. We next need to think about the implications for demand growth for all the things made from chemicals and polymers in China. To help you think through this issue – […]
Global Economic Recovery To Weaken On End Of China Stimulus
By John Richardson THE extent to which the global economic recovery has been dependent on China will become all-too apparent over the rest of this year, and into 2018, as China once again reduces lending. As UBS writes in a report released earlier this month: The economy at the epicentre of the most significant growth […]
Brexit, US-China Trade Talks: Time Is Running Out
By John Richardson BY MARCH 2019, Britain needs to have successfully negotiated the terms of Brexit – and be certain that when the clock stops ticking the terms of the deal will work in practice. And the task of hitting this already ambitious deadline has just been made even harder by the snap General Election British […]
US Economy Returns To Weak Growth On Demographics
By John Richardson THE US is a deeply politically divided country to the point where the divisions are having a profound effect on consumer confidence. As the New York Times writes: Among Republicans, the University of Michigan consumer expectations index was at 61.1 in October, the kind of reading typically reported in the depths of a […]
Credit, Commodities And China: History May Soon Repeat Itself
By John Richardson YOU should be getting that strong feeling that history might be about to repeat itself when you look at the January-February data on China’s petrochemicals markets. In polypropylene (PP), polyethylene, styrene, mono-ethylene glycol, phenol and acetone, the ICIS reading of China Customs data indicates big year-on-year increases in imports – way ahead of what the […]
Trump-Xi Summit Highlights What’s At Stake For US Petchems
By John Richardson THE above chart, showing US linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) expansions and rising surpluses, is just one jigsaw piece of only one global manufacturing chain that could be completely reshaped by the Trump administration’s approach to free trade. This approach is today under the spotlight as President Trump and President Xi Jinping of […]
Global Deflation At Risk Of Returning On End Of China Commodities Bubble
By John Richardson THIS time last year it was deflation that seemed to be the problem for the global economy. Despite many years of US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) etc. economic stimulus, consumer and producer prices had stubbornly refused to respond in the way that most of the […]
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