By John Richardson CHINA HAS changed its strategy for the petrochemicals and polymers where it is in deficit. Previously, the government accepted China’s position as a major importer. Now the plan is to move into balanced or long positions with any surpluses exported via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Petrochemicals are seen as a […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China plans to raise ethylene capacity by 113% in major self-sufficiency drive
By John Richardson IN SEPTEMBER last year, I had thought that China might raise its ethylene capacity by as much as 71% by as early as 2022 over its end-2017 level of 23.5m tonnes. Now, though, our updated data show the potential for a staggering 113% increase over the next four years, when you look […]
Plastic Waste Crisis: Virgin Polymers Growth Will Be Below GDP
By John Richardson AS the demand for transportation fuels declines, oil and refining companies are increasingly viewing petrochemicals as compensation for this lost demand. Their logic is based on the theory that whilst gasoline and diesel consumption is set to fall on sustainability concerns, petrochemicals growth will remain strong. The companies have of course tremendous […]
China’s 74% Fall In High-Risk Lending Points To New Slowdown
By John Richardson THE above chart should give you a feeling of déjà vu. In early 2014, Chinese lending growth started to decline and by September of that year, broad recognition of the extent of the decline was behind a sharp retreat in global commodities prices as the global economy also slowed. History very often […]
China Scrap Plastic Crackdown: 1-2% Boost To Polyolefins Demand
By John Richardson THE DECLINE in China’s imports of scrap or waste plastic and cardboard could boost 2018 virgin polypropylene (PP) consumption in China by some 1% above our base case. Meanwhile, polyethylene (PE) demand may be 2% higher For details on what this would mean in terms of tonnes, subscribe to our monthly Asia […]
Single-Use Plastics: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly
By John Richardson AN ENVIRONMENTALIST I used to know would often say, “The world is already choking to death on plastics. We don’t need any more. We must shut plastics plants down and stop building new ones.” She was only partly right. Her anger at plastics pollution was often driven more by emotion than solid […]
Why China Can Become Major Polypropylene Exporter By 2025
By John Richardson ONE of the main topics of debate in the global polypropylene (PP) business is whether or not China will become entirely self-sufficient. The pessimists, or rather I would say the realists, go a step further. They believe that there is every chance that China will become a significant exporter. The final result […]
Why US-China Talks May So Easily Fail To Avert Trade War
By John Richardson CHINA might still be in a race against time to achieve enough levels of innovation to escape its middle-income trap. This could mean that it has no choice but to reach a deal with the US on trade that gives it continued access to US intellectual property. Such a deal would avert […]
US-China Trade War: Global Recession, Collapse Of Polyethylene Markets
By John Richardson YOU have had more than 12 months to prepare for a global trade war that is becoming ever-more likely, almost by the day. This would lead to a new global recession given the shaky nature of today’s “economic recovery”. President Trump overnight Asia time announced plans for a further $100bn of tariffs […]
Europe Polyolefins Must Confront Plastics Rubbish Crisis
By John Richardson THE European polyolefins industry is quite often viewed as an industry with limited growth opportunities. But provided companies take the right upstream and downstream approach, the growth opportunities are substantial. Success will hinge on how successful the industry is in dealing with the plastics rubbish crisis. This will be one the themes […]
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