By John Richardson CHINA’S apparent demand for polypropylene (PP) grew by 4.7% in 2018 over the previous year as the impact of the fall in auto and other durable goods sales hit the market hard, is my preliminary estimate. This would represent the lowest annual growth since 2012. Apparent demand, which is net imports plus […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China slowdown threatens a million tonnes of lost styrene demand
By John Richardson CHINA’S apparent demand (*see note below) for styrene in 2018 looks set to have increased by just 2.5% over the previous year. This would be the lowest percentage growth and the smallest addition of new demand in tonnes since 2012. This would compare with our earlier estimate of real demand growth of […]
Risks for US petrochemicals grow as crucial trade talks resume
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart further underlines what is at stake for the US petrochemicals industry as the US and China tomorrow resume high level trade talks in an attempt to end their trade war. The chart shows that if the US can export HDPE to China in 2019 and 2020, it will require […]
The polyethylene world is now even more hooked on China
By John Richardson CHINA’S NET PE imports look likely to have risen by an average of 20% in 2018 over the previous year across the three major grades. Apparent demand (net imports plus local production) looks as if it will be 12% higher. So much for excessive doom and gloom about the Chinese economy then? […]
Trade war fears return as US LLDPE becomes more exposed to China
By John Richardson THE ground has shifted under our feet once again. Just as it seemed as if the US and China would complete a trade deal by the 2 March deadline, the prospects of an agreement have suddenly diminished. This is the result of the Trump administration declining an offer from two Chinese vice-ministers […]
Polyethylene production via oil and gas: The next horse and cart
By John Richardson IF YOU had conducted a snap survey of horse and cart manufacturers during New York’s Easter Parade in 1900, I am sure that hardly any of them would have foreseen that 12 years later their businesses would have all but disappeared. Photos show that during the Easter Parade in 2011 automobiles had […]
India’s pollution crisis threatens chemicals industry approach to growth
By John Richardson THE ten most polluted cities in the world are all in Northern India. It is therefore hardly surprising that a Lancet study found that pollution killed 1.24m Indians in 2017 — half of them younger than 70. This lowered the country’s average life expectancy by 1.7 years. These were just some of […]
China full-year lending decline confirms that Fed pause is a sideshow
By John Richardson CHINA’S full-year 2018 lending figures are out and they underline what I’d be warning throughout last year – the withdrawal of stimulus back to the levels of the pre-2009 period. Shadow bank lending, which has led to extraordinary growth in demand for chemicals and polymers, and all the things made from chemicals […]
Oil prices to be buoyed by new shipping fuel rules, despite economic slowdown
Guest blogger today is Ajay Parmar. He is a chemical engineering professional with 5 years of industrial experience in oil refining, primarily in a process engineering capacity. He joined ICIS in 2018 as a Senior Analyst and currently works on developing a price forecasting model for crude oil and refined products. […]
Turkey PE demand could be 8% lower as economic problems continue
By John Richardson TURKEY’S apparent demand for PE may have fallen by 8% in 2018 to around 2m tonnes from 2.2m tonnes of demand in 2017, I estimate. PP doesn’t look to have been as badly affected, as I think apparent demand will be approximately 2.2m tonnes in 2018, some 40,000 tonnes less than in […]