By John Richardson NEITHER SIDE seems to want a war but at febrile times like this miscalculations could see the US and Iran in a full-scale conflict. Iran might feel it has little more to lose. Its economy is suffering so badly from increased sanctions, especially as a result of the collapse in its oil […]
Asian Chemical Connections
US petrochemicals export exposure grows at the wrong time in history
As always, the views in this blog post are my own and do not reflect the views of ICIS. Thank you By John Richardson THE US economy is enjoying an unprecedented economic recovery. It has been expanding for the past 122 consecutive months, the longest period in history. But, in my opinion, this is largely […]
Further collapse in China auto sales underlines radical change in petrochemicals business model
By John Richardson HAVE FEEDSTOCK will build has been the route to success for many years in the petrochemicals business. If you have never experienced anything else then a change in the paradigm is very hard to come to terms with. What often instead happens is that a new paradigm is simply rejected in favour […]
European petrochemical markets keeping calm and carrying on in light of Saudi attacks
Here is a guest post from my very good ICIS colleague, Matt Tudball, our head of European Markets, where he considers the impact on European petrochemicals markets of the drone and cruise missile strikes on Saudi Arabia (see the image below which details the damage inflicted). ON FRIDAY, at the ICIS Bishopsgate office in […]
Global PE market to remain long despite Saudi cutbacks caused by drone attack
By John Richardson TRADERS lucky enough to be holding long positions in PE ahead of the 14 September drone attack on Saudi oil and gas facilities want everyone to believe that this has changed everything. They will tell you over and over again, if you’re prepared to listen, that the resulting reduction in ethane supply […]
Risk of stagflation and recession from drone attack on Saudi oil facilities
By John Richardson ANY major change in US government foreign policy always carries major risks because, for the time being at least, the US remains the world’s No1 economic and geopolitical Superpower. This is the point I’ve been making since January 2017, when it first became evident that Donald Trump’s election rhetoric on confronting China […]
Drone attack on Saudi oil facilities: Substantial investment required to avoid a repeat
The views expressed below are personal and do not express the views of ICIS Here is a another blog post by our guest blogger, Chris Parry (CBE). Chris, a former Rear Admiral in the British Royal Navy, is now a strategic forecaster and risk expert. He is the founding chair of the UK’s Marine Management […]
President Trump can only cause major economic damage by beating China, unless he has a time machine
The views in this blog, are, as always, my own personal views and don’t reflect the views of ICIS. Thanks By John Richardson LORD SALISBURY, who served as British Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, understood it was impossible to turn back time to the American Civil of […]
Unsustainable boom in China auto market ends as sales of new vehicles move permanently lower
By John Richardson THERE IS a big temptation when making forecasts of becoming too excited about the recent past. Judgements are at risk of being blurred by euphoria, resulting in very bad investment decisions based on the notion that the recent past will reflect the long-term future. Paradigm shifts do occur from time to time. […]
Global PP demand could be 81.5m tonnes less than forecast in 2019-2028 as China Debt Supercycle ends
By John Richardson SOME PEOPLE argue that despite the rapid rise in Chinese consumer debt over the last few years, there is nothing to worry about because consumer debt as a percentage of GDP China still lags behind Western countries. This misses the point and is an example of the dangerous “all is right with […]