By John Richardson HYMAN MINSKY was an American economist who focused his career on studying the causes of financial crises. He developed what he called a ‘financial instability hypothesis” which was based on the notion that long periods of stability sow the seeds of future crises. His ground breaking work, which is used to explain […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Bricklaying In Australia And Oil Prices: Important Similarities
By John Richardson THE bricklayer came around to my house three years ago, quickly surveyed the extent of the job, drew a sharp breath, and said, “It’s going to cost you at least Aus$4,000.” And that was after a four-week wait to get a quote. How times have changed. Last week, the same bricklayer popped around […]
Climate Change: Taking Out An Insurance Policy
By John Richardson WOULD you get on board a plane without taking out travel insurance to protect your family? Of course not, even though the chances of you being involved in a plane crash are one in 9 million. And would you step into an ocean where dangerous sharks swim, especially if you live where […]
The West Is Becoming “Cash Poor And Time Rich”
By John Richardson Consumers in the West are moving from being ‘cash rich and time poor” to being “cash poor and time rich”. The reason is that Western fertility rates have below replacement level (2.1 babies/woman) for 45 years since 1970, meaning there are relatively fewer Wealth Creators. Another problem is the pension pot in […]
US Consumers Can No Longer Rescue The Global Economy
By John Richardson WE have gone beyond a major turning point in world history when many of the certainties we used to be able to depend on simply no longer apply. Just about everyone now accepts that the old certainties relating to China no longer apply. That’s the good news. But the bad news is […]
It’s Insane But Why Not? Oil Back at $100 By Christmas
By John Richardson ALBERT Einstein is widely credited with saying this: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results”. Who cares if it is either paraphrased or he didn’t even say it at all? This is a fantastic quote. For me, what makes this quote so […]
China’s Environment: Business As Usual Not An Option
By John Richardson SONG Wei, an environmentalist from Hunan province, told the BBC in July: “No more economic growth stained by blood. Under the new environment law, every factory has to be approved before it’s built. We’re putting an end to unregulated chaos.” (China introduced a New Environmental Protection Law in January). The cynics will, of […]
Rudderless Australia Drifts On
By John Richardson THERE used to be two certainties in life that everyone in Australia could depend on. We all know that the first certainty was, and sadly still is, death. But the second certainty was China acting as the “bankroller” of the Australian economy. This has all but vanished since late 2013. The second […]
Just “Black Swans” That We Can’t Predict? Nonsense
By John Richardson HERE is a list of just a few recent what were are told were “Black Swan” events: The Lehman Bros-triggered global financial crisis. China’s 2008-2013 economic stimulus package. Last year’s collapse in oil prices. China’s economic and environmental about turn. We are also told because these were Black Swans – freak events […]
China Jan-Feb Polyolefins Production Underlines New Direction
By John Richardson Here is another chart to consider as you, hopefully, dismantle and completely rebuild your strategy for China: It shows that in in January-February of this year compared with the same period in 2014, China’s polyethylene (PE) production was 15% higher at 2.3m tonnes. Its polypropylene (PP) production was 21% higher at 2.5m […]
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