By John Richardson CHINA’S HUGE January credit increase might be the start of a new round of major credit-fuelled economic stimulus, was the theory I put forward last week. This would lead to a rebound in global growth and a surge in worldwide chemicals demand as global growth is about these three things: China, China […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s fall in births and economic decline may be impossible to fix
By John Richardson CHINA’S official Lunar New Year postage stamp for 2019 shows a family of five happy pigs made up of two parents and three children. This is if course is the Year of the Pig and in Chinese culture pigs represent wealth and treasure. Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist, is amongst others who […]
China’s dominant role in global PE demand just got even bigger
By John Richardson WE WERE already living in an incredibly lopsided PE world even before last year’s extraordinary rise in Chinese demand. Between 2009 and 2020 we had forecast that China would account for 25% of global PE consumption and 42% of global growth in demand. These percentages compared with just 16% of consumption and […]
China slowdown: Loss of 7m tonnes of global PP demand points to new investment model
By John Richardson CHINA’S influence on the world economy has grown to such an extent over the last decade that is now a bigger driver of growth than the US and the EU combined, says Eurizon SLJ Asset Management. The US impact on global GDP shrunk from just over 40% in 1989-1998 to half that […]
China propylene: 6.7m tonne demand hole threatens to swallow-up new projects
By John Richardson CONVENTIONAL opinion is that the global propylene market is moving from a balanced position to a balanced-to-tight position in 2018-2020. This will justify a significant wave of new investments is a common view. It is time to think again. We had expected Chinese propylene demand to grow by 6.9% in 2018 over […]
Trade war fears return as US LLDPE becomes more exposed to China
By John Richardson THE ground has shifted under our feet once again. Just as it seemed as if the US and China would complete a trade deal by the 2 March deadline, the prospects of an agreement have suddenly diminished. This is the result of the Trump administration declining an offer from two Chinese vice-ministers […]
Polyethylene production via oil and gas: The next horse and cart
By John Richardson IF YOU had conducted a snap survey of horse and cart manufacturers during New York’s Easter Parade in 1900, I am sure that hardly any of them would have foreseen that 12 years later their businesses would have all but disappeared. Photos show that during the Easter Parade in 2011 automobiles had […]
China full-year lending decline confirms that Fed pause is a sideshow
By John Richardson CHINA’S full-year 2018 lending figures are out and they underline what I’d be warning throughout last year – the withdrawal of stimulus back to the levels of the pre-2009 period. Shadow bank lending, which has led to extraordinary growth in demand for chemicals and polymers, and all the things made from chemicals […]
Turkey PE demand could be 8% lower as economic problems continue
By John Richardson TURKEY’S apparent demand for PE may have fallen by 8% in 2018 to around 2m tonnes from 2.2m tonnes of demand in 2017, I estimate. PP doesn’t look to have been as badly affected, as I think apparent demand will be approximately 2.2m tonnes in 2018, some 40,000 tonnes less than in […]
Flood of US LLDPE begins to disrupt markets with worse to follow
By John Richardson THE ABOVE table illustrates the 2018 impact on smaller LLDPE markets of the arrival of big volumes of new US production. Big percentage increases such as these can be misleading when they are from very small bases. But look at it from this angle: Vietnam, Turkey, Malaysia, Thailand and Taiwan, province of […]