By John Richardson NEITHER SIDE seems to want a war but at febrile times like this miscalculations could see the US and Iran in a full-scale conflict. Iran might feel it has little more to lose. Its economy is suffering so badly from increased sanctions, especially as a result of the collapse in its oil […]
Asian Chemical Connections
European petrochemical markets keeping calm and carrying on in light of Saudi attacks
Here is a guest post from my very good ICIS colleague, Matt Tudball, our head of European Markets, where he considers the impact on European petrochemicals markets of the drone and cruise missile strikes on Saudi Arabia (see the image below which details the damage inflicted). ON FRIDAY, at the ICIS Bishopsgate office in […]
How sustainability will upend the petrochemicals cost curve, creating new winners and losers
By John Richardson THE FUTURE I described on Wednesday, of declining petrochemicals and polymers demand growth as the Millennials reshape consumer markets, is only doom and gloom if you let it be doom and gloom. This represents a fantastic opportunity for companies in our industry to entirely reshape their strategies and emerge as winners. Gone […]
China trade war duties on US LDPE “very likely” as global recession concerns grow
By John Richardson IT IS very likely that China will impose 25% additional imports duties on LDPE in response to the latest US escalation of the trade war, market sources have told me this week. This would add to the 25% duties that have been in place on US HDPE and LLDPE cargoes since August […]
BASF’s shocking Q2 results should have been no shock at all
y John Richardson NOBODY should be surprised by the BASF results for Q1 2019 where, on a year-on-year basis, EBIT was down by 71%. This was largely because of events in China. The roots of these very poor results, with many more likely to follow from other chemicals companies, can be traced back to H1 […]
US LLDPE imports and the impact on European petrochemicals
By John Richardson EUROPEAN linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) markets have yet to feel the full effect of the big increase in US production in 2019. One of the reasons is that some Middle East material that should have gone to Europe was diverted to China in January-April. Netbacks to China were stronger because Chinese […]
Global polyethylene: Supply is not the problem, it is demand
By John Richardson WHEN people talk about supply it is very often because it is much easier to quantify than demand when, in fact, it is demand that’s the real problem. This is the case today in the global polyethylene (PE) market where the focus is on the big slug of new US supply hitting […]
Environmental credits separate polymer Winners and Losers as the world divides
By John Richardson THE WORLD is becoming a much more complex and fragmented place as the consensus about the benefits of open markets and the largely unrestricted movement of labour is challenged. There also seems to be a split between those individuals and governments that agree with the science supporting human-made climate change versus those […]
China MEG spreads turn negative on 171% rise in US retail prices for Chinese clothing
By John Richardson THERE are a lot of theories out there about why the spreads between Chinese mono-ethylene glycols (MEG) prices and naphtha feedstock costs have fallen in April and May of this year (see the above chart). But as I shall explain in detail later on, the only explanations that entirely stand up are […]
Plastics pollution crisis: Impact on polyethylene margins in 2022-2027
By John Richardson ALMOST all countries late last week signed a UN deal to monitor the flow of hard-to-recycle plastics to poorer countries. The US was amongst the few countries which declined to sign the agreement. The deal is the result of the increase in contaminated plastic waste exports to Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam etc. […]