At some point, polyolefins exporters to China and the local producers will regain pricing power. This will become apparent from a widening of spreads as economic activity returns to normal. It really is as simple as this. So, you need our data and analysis.
Asian Chemical Connections
European polypropylene: Supply chain demand destruction and the need for a new business model
EFFICIENT SUPPLY CHAINS were something that we used to take for granted. They hummed away in the background, making petrochemicals just one of many globalised industries where products and services flowed almost seamlessly across borders. We didn’t have to think about supply chains because they worked so well.
Big divergence between Europe PE and PP markets continue, creating seller and buyer opportunities
REGULAR readers of the blog will know that I first highlighted the big polyolefins market divergence in April 2021. Back then, I said that:
Asia and Middle East producers needed to sell more to Europe.
Buyers should secure more resin supplies from Asia.
China zero-COVID: 2022 impact on local and global demand for nine major polymers
Instead of demand for the nine polymers growing by 7m tonnes in 2022 under our base cases, my downsides see consumption falling by 6m tonnes.
PE and PP production decisions become super-critical amid Ukraine-Russia, zero-COVID complications
Every tonne you don’t produce, when you correctly assess that the demand isn’t there in a particular market, will be important in preserving cashflow. Cashflow could once again be king, as it was just during the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis; and every tonne that you do produce, when you accurately assess that demand is there will, of course, support your revenues.
New scenarios for 2022 Eurozone and UK PE growth as inflation and debt pressures build
The ICIS Supply & Demand Base Case growth for Eurozone and UK PE demand in 2022 over last year is 1%. Downside 1 assumes consumption will contract by 4% and Downside 2 by 7%.
China polyethylene: latest scenarios for 2022 demand and net imports
China’s polyethylene (PE) demand in 2022 could fall by 3% over last year. Net imports may be as much as 3.9m tonnes lower
US domestic PE logistics challenges may create bigger opportunity for other producers in Europe
US PE exports could be restricted in 2022 by local logistics challenges as China’s imports decline as its economy suffers a recession. The centre of attention for Asian and Middle exporters may therefore be Europe.
Europe HDPE: why net imports could be 3m tonnes higher this year
EUROPE’S NET HDPE imports could be as high as 4.1m tonnes in 2022 versus last year’s 1.1m tonnes.
China’s 2022 PE growth may be minus 3% with net imports declining by 29%
I AM JUST about clinging to a base case of positive China polyethylene (PE) demand growth in 2022 because China has a great track record of turning its economy around after short periods of weaker growth. But this time could be different.