By John Richardson AS ALL THE CLAMOUR builds about inflation and rising energy costs – and absolutely, of course, these are major challenges which I shalll address in later posts – there’s a danger the petrochemicals industry will lose focus on charts such as the one above, courtesy of the pH Report. I am still […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Global polymers and sustainability: how the industry could change over the next decade
By John Richardson MORE THAN 100 countries, including the US, are thought to favour a treaty being proposed at the next UN Environment Assembly in February and March that would set targets for reducing plastic waste in the environment, according to the BBC. I see this as great news, a step forward, as I was […]
Why China’s PP demand may only grow by 1% per year in 2022-2032
By John Richardson MOST people now accept that China’s real estate sector, worth some 29% of the country’s GDP, is deflating with significant long-term implications for petrochemicals growth. But because China’s GDP growth is very likely to still grow and because China’ existing demand is already so big the common view is that there is […]
European and US LLDPE margins may in 2022 sink towards northeast Asian levels
By John Richardson A GOOD FRIEND and contact messaged me this week to say, “Wow, this is complicated”. Yes, I am afraid so. These are the most difficult-to-read polyolefins markets I can recall in my 25 years of following the industry. I don’t see forecasting outcomes for this year becoming any easier. But, using linear […]
China HDPE negative 2021 growth, declining imports underline need for new business model
By John Richardson Following on from my post on Wednesday, please study the quite remarkable chart below, and, if you are not making Common Prosperity the very centrepiece of your strategic planning process, ask yourself, “Why not?”. Then please, please change direction before it’s too late. What you can see are the ICIS estimates for […]
China phenol self-sufficiency: another one could bite the dust
By John Richardson IT IS A FANTASTIC song from a great band. Another One Bites the Dust by Queen underlines the versatility of a band that could not be pinned down. They never stuck to a genre, but instead adhered with the strength of epoxy resin-based glues to excellent song writing and performing. When analysing […]
Petrochemicals health warning: beware of vanishing feedstocks
By John Richardson NEW STEAM cracker projects are still being announced on the assumption that they will still be needed 20 years and more from now – well beyond full depreciation. One could argue this is reasonable given that it took some 50 years, from the introduction of the Model T to the development of […]
Benzene, the need for a new global Industrial Revolution and the big challenges that lie ahead
By John Richardson THE CHART BELOW shows that 60% of global benzene production in 2021-2040 is forecast to be made via technologies linked to refining units that also make gasoline components. The 60% includes a 33% share for catalytic reformers that make toluene, mixed xylenes (MX) and benzene, referred to collectively as reformate. In the […]
After the COP26 disappointment, the “blame game” will get us nowhere
The implications of last week’s disappointing COP26 meeting in Glasgow are so complex and so numerous that is going to take more than one blog post to provide adequate coverage. In this first post, I look at the failure of COP26 to agree on a global carbon tax, in my view essential, and discuss the […]
New China HDPE import scenarios for 2021-2031 in the context of Common Prosperity
By John Richardson IF YOU THINK that forecasting the direction of China’s petrochemicals demand has become complicated enough because of Common Prosperity, the new complexities around demand pale into insignificance compared with the tangle of fresh variables shaping local capacity growth. The above slide is just my back-of-the-envelope attempt to chart some of […]
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