By Malini Hariharan The going has been good for the refining industry this year but analysts are predicting a weaker 2012 and 2013. UBS for instance, expects complex refining margin in Asia to fall 20% in 2012 from the average $8/bbl forecast for 2011. And it expects 2013 to be even weaker with average margin […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Middle East Still Confident For Now
By John Richardson Confidence among Middle Eastern petrochemical producers remains high because they obviously now that as long as oil prices do not collapse they will continue to make excellent money, said a chemicals analyst. The blog believes that there is a very strong chance that crude will collapse to as little as $25 a […]
The US Debt Crisis And Asian Chemicals
By John Richardson THE consequence of either a failure by the US to raise the debt ceiling and/or a downgrading of the country’s Triple A debt rating would have obviously have serious consequences for the Asian and global chemicals industries. Just how serious nobody really knows as we are in uncharted waters. At the very […]
Boom, Gloom and the New Normal – Chapter 2 Published Today
Chapter 2 of Boom, Gloom and the New Normal is published today. In a completely new and challenging analysis we argue: • The Western BabyBoomers boosted chemical demand for housing, autos and electronics during their peak consumption years between 1980-2000. But this demand is unlikely to be sustained, now they are entering the 55+ age […]
Boom, Gloom and the New Normal published this week
Today, the blog is proud to announce the publication the first Chapter of its new eBook: ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal: how Western BabyBoomers are changing global chemical demand patterns, again’ It is co-authored with Paul Hodges of International eChem – author of the Chemicals & Economy blog. A new chapter will […]
Butadiene – will the good times last?
By Malini Hariharan A question that every butadiene buyer has been asking for a long time is when will prices ease? There are no signs yet although buyers are threatening to cut production. Butadiene rose by more than $200/tonne last week to $3,080-3,120/tonne CFR Northeast Asia, reports my colleague Helen Yan on ICIS news. Prices […]
Growing Uncertainties Cloud Chemicals Outlook
By John Richardson THE global growth outlook grows ever murkier as a result of credit tightening in China (or is the problem instead continued strong growth in lending?), inflation problems throughout Asia, possible monetary tightening in the West, the direction of oil prices and the Japanese tsunami-earthquake. We feel that this is making the rest […]
Japan Disaster: Plants and markets update
By Malini Hariharan Japan’s benzene supply is expected to drop by 10% following plant shutdowns and diversion of product for gasoline blending, reports my colleague Mahua Chakravarty. This works out to about 40,000 tonnes/month, which is lower than the initial estimate of 100,000 tonnes/month made immediately after the earthquake. Traders have started booking cargoes from […]
China PE Re-exported To Europe
By John Richardson CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) market is in such a bad state that re-exports are now being considered to Europe. The wide disparity between a flat China market and strong pricing in European has created this exceptionally rare arbitrage opportunity, which, according to an industry observer “has happened before, many moons ago, but not […]
PX/PTA prices spike as supply dries up
By Malini Hariharan The paraxylene (PX)-purified terephthalic acid (PTA) market appears to be bearing the brunt of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. Spot supplies of PX have dried up following the shutdown of three Japanese plants with a total capacity of 950,000 tonnes/year. Spot PX prices surged to a record high $1,815/tonne CFR Taiwan last […]
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