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Back to the Serious Stuff: Fitch issues China warning

As I’ve been warning on this blog for some time, the explosion of credit in China has created a great deal of paper-bottomed optimism over the recovery. Fitch, the ratings agency, has just raised its macro-prudential risk indicator ffor China from category 1 (safe) to category 3 (Iceland et al) because of the lending surge […]

The next oil shock and petrochemicals

Apologies for letting this blog slip again, but have been busy trying to make a crust presenting ICIS training courses. And so as a bonus for our army of avid readers, here are my extended thoughts on the above: In the midst of the economic crisis it would be so easy to bury your head […]

Maybe it’s not as bleak as I’ve made out…

Consensus opinion tends to swing firmly in one direction and then the other. For example, in the good old days of 2007 you would have been pretty hard-pressed to find many in the chemicals industry who saw anything but a mildly cyclical downturn. But the widely-held view now – that we are facing five years […]

Net lending declines by 70-80% in Q2 in China

This very interesting note from Jun Ma, chief economist for Greater China at Deutsche Bank (see the end of this post) offers evidence to support what this blog has been worried about for some time – the quality of China’s economic rebound. The government would presumably be less concerned about the sharp increase in loan […]

How long can bear-market rallies last?

The current run-up in equities might go on and on – perhaps even for several years, according to economist Russell Napier. But he warns, in this excellent video interview with FT journalist John Authers, that an extended boom in equities doesn’t necessarily mean the economic fundamentals are sound. For example,the stock market rally after the […]

Aussie on a losing wicket

The timing of when to strike the ball is everything in the wonderful sport of cricket – and also, apparently, in the American pastime of baseball. An Australian banker is fond of reminding the English how much better his country is at playing cricket. But his gloating doesn’t extend to how well he’s been timing […]

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