By John Richardson THE WORLD was very different in 2003 when SARS struck. Back then, China accounted for just 4% of the global economy but last year this had risen to 17%. The US was also the biggest source of global economic growth 17 years ago. China has since overtaken the US to become the […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China single-use plastic bans: Polyethylene imports 68m tonnes lower in 2020-2030
By John Richardson THE good news from a “business as usual” perspective is that China’s polyethylene (PE) demand might have exceeded our expectations in 2019 by some 800,000 tonnes. Preliminary discussions with my contacts point towards growth of 10% in 2019 over last year rather than our forecast of 7.8% as a result of continued […]
Iran and the US: Assessing the risks for petrochemicals and the global economy
As always, these are my personal views only and don’t reflect the views of ICIS By John Richardson AT TIMES like this it’s very hard to be dispassionate. Emotions run high on either side of the widening political gulf as the two factions shout ever-more loudly at each other and refuse to listen. This is […]
Global polyethylene in 2020: Margins will reach historic lows as new growth model emerges
Here is a first of a series of outlook articles for 2020 where I focus on the risks ahead for the global polyethylene business By John Richardson CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) market will start 2020 with a whimper because of exceptionally high levels of overstocking, which is a reflection of growing global oversupply. In the […]
Long term downcycle will transform global petrochemicals, creating new Winners and Losers
By John Richardson THIS IS not a normal downcycle. Please get over that idea however many people, both inside and outside your company, tell you this. It is very tempting to believe that this is a normal bit of bloodletting that comes along ever so often. The temptation comes from the fact that it is […]
Asian PE and PP margins at lowest levels in at least five years and will go lower……
By John Richardson NOT since at least the beginning of 2014 have Northeast and Southeast Asian polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) margins been as low as they were for the week ending 29 November. We only began our margin assessments in 2014 and so last week’s margins may be lowest for an even longer period. […]
Shift in supply chains away from China adds costs, complexities and risks for petrochemicals
By John Richardson AS PETROCHEMICALS and other manufacturers scramble to relocate their businesses away from China in order to compensate for the trade war, they are discovering that there can be no replacement for China. China has been building up its global manufacturing dominance since as early as the 1980s. In the process it has […]
IMF confirms global economy all about China as US threat to growth persists
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t tell you. An important new IMF study confirms what I’ve been arguing for a long time: China has overtaken the US to become the biggest locomotive of global economic growth. In the five years between 2013 and 2028, China accounted for 28% of all global growth, behind the […]
China’s polyethylene indigestion persists as margins point to major downturn
By John Richardson CHINA’S POLYETHYLENE (PE) market continues to display signs of chronic indigestion. Significant overstocking persists with Northeast Asian integrated naphtha-based PE margins pointing to the weak start of the market with conditions are set to deteriorate. The core of the problem is that Chinese growth isn’t going to be anywhere near strong enough […]
US ethylene glycols: Diversifying away from China may prove impossible
By John Richardson US BUSINESSES are making arrangements to diversify their supply chains away from China because of a recognition that, even if a short term trade deal is done, the long term trajectory is towards a much more confrontational relationship between the US and China, says Jacob Parker, vice president of China operations at […]