By John Richardson MOST of the analysis on the tenth anniversary of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) focuses on the effects on Western economies and societies. Economic inequality has risen since 2008 resulting in the rise of populist politics, is a very common theme. But almost entirely overlooked is the huge effect that the GFC […]
Asian Chemical Connections
US ethylene glycols: The Cost Of Exclusion From China
By John Richardson IF THE US were unable to export ethylene glycols (EG) to China the economic logic of US capacity expansions would face major challenges. Between 2018 and 2025, China will account for no less than 84% of global net imports (imports minus exports) amongst the major importing regions and countries. (For those who […]
US Economic Strength Of Little Benefit To Global Polyolefins
By John Richardson THE BETTER that things get in the US (provided you own equities and are not on a zero-hours contract) the worse things become in emerging markets. Despite a weaker greenback on a trade-weighted basis, the investor sell-off in emerging markets continued last Thursday, wrote Bloomberg in this article. The Lira was for […]
Don’t Forget Turkey And Its Importance To Global Polyolefins
By John Richardson YOU might well have forgotten the Turkish lira crisis because of the US/China trade war. But Turkey is crucial for the health of the global polyolefins business because of the size of its imports. Before the US fell out with Turkey, resulting in the collapse of the lira, we had expected that […]
US Risks Losing Access To 82% Of Global PE Consumption Growth, 80% Of Exports
By John Richardson PERHAPS this week’s low-level trade talks between the US and China shouldn’t only be judged on the basis that they are low level, involving officials of mid-level seniority who are therefore not empowered to achieve major breakthroughs. The talks on 22-23 August (23 August is when 25% Chinese polyethylene (PE) tariffs on […]
Turkey Crisis: Implications For Polyolefins And Global Economy
By John Richardson THE first ramification of the Turkey crisis is that the collapse of the lira raises questions over how Turkish importers will be able to afford the dollars to pay for some of the polyolefins imported since the crisis began. Then comes the issue of what happens to Turkish polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene […]
China tariffs: Quantifying The Impact On US Petchems And Energy
By John Richardson PRESIDENT Trump believes he is winning the trade war with China because of the much greater strength of US stock markets versus their Chinese counterparts. At the start of last week, for example, the two major Chinese indexes had lost a quarter of their value since the start of the year whereas […]
China 25% Tariffs On US PE Imports Extended To All HDPE, Nearly All LLDPE
By John Richardson CHINA has extended its 25% import tariffs on US polyethylene (PE) to include all grades of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) that it imported in 2017 and 93% of the grades of linear-low density PE (LLDPE) that it imported in that same year. Also affected, as you can see from the above table, are […]
China’s Latest Threat Of US Methanol Tariff Perfectly Targeted
By John Richardson CHINA crunches exactly the same data as the rest of us, as I warned on Friday when discussing polyethylene (PE). China’s government is very aware of the dominant role China plays in global energy, petrochemicals and polymers markets. In many energy and petchems products, no other country or region comes close to being […]
Polyethylene: Damage From Trade War Should Not Be Underestimated
By John Richardson THE argument that the US-China trade war will have a minimal impact on the global polyethylene (PE) business is based on two assumptions, both of which I will argue could easily prove to be wrong. Firstly, some commentators quite rightly point out that the proposed Chinese tariffs on US PE exports only […]