By John Richardson I WILL explain the full significance of the above charts for the Asian and global polyethylene (PE) industries later on this is post. In short here, though, a great deal hinges on next year’s oil prices, with the possibility that there is more momentum left in today’s rally. And of course […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Benefits, Risks Of Petronas/Aramco Deals Serving As Template
By John Richardson THE PETRONAS and Saudi Aramco joint ventures in the RAPID refining-to-petrochemicals project in Malaysia may serve as a template for further “win/win deals”. Whilst these deals will substantially benefit the companies and countries involved, there are broader risks that I’ll discuss at the end of this blog post. Back in February, Aramco […]
How US Polyethylene Exports To China Could Come To A Halt
By John Richardson THE US has abundant shale gas reserves that have in effect been solidified into new polyethylene (PE) capacity, which is largely for export as this is a cheap way of shipping ethane. If you subscribe to the standard view of how the world’s economy will behave over the next decade, growth will […]
Global Polypropylene In 2018-2025: What To Plan For
By John Richardson THIS could be an excellent investment opportunity. Our ICIS Supply and Demand Database base case for Asian and global polypropylene (PP) operating rates sees the steady and steep climb that began in 2014 carrying on until a peak in 2020. In that year, global operating rates will reach 94% and Asian capacity […]
Threat To US Polyethylene From President Trump’s Iran Decision
By John Richardson THE geopolitical and economic relationship between China and Iran was already very strong even before Donald Trump decertified the Iranian nuclear deal. Now, though, Iran and China could draw even closer. This could pose a major threat to the US polyethylene (PE) industry as it ramps-up capacity. Here, first of all, is […]
How China Will Help South Asia Maximise Its Demographic Dividend….
….as the OBOR region, which includes South Asia, pushes towards complete petrochemicals self-sufficiency By John Richardson SOUTH ASIA (India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) is seeing around 1m people join its workforce every month, with this potential demographic dividend set to last for the next two decades, according to the World Bank. That is […]
How China’s OBOR Will Re-Order Global Petchems Value Chains
By John Richardson EVERY petrochemicals company needs to understand the above map and its implications for global trade flows over the next 20 years. Failure to understand and respond to what this map is telling you would be a very costly error. Let’s start with understanding what One Belt, One Road actually means: The One […]
Climate Change, Extreme Weather: Implications For Chemicals Companies
By John Richardson The greater frequency of extreme weather events presents a huge challenge for chemicals companies. Take Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma as the most obvious current examples. Weather forecasting service AccuWeather writes in this article: This is the first time in the history of record keeping that two Category 4 or higher hurricanes, […]
Tumbling Oil Prices: Implications For Asian Polyethylene
By John Richardson DON’T say that I didn’t warn you. Oil prices now look much more likely to hit my forecast of $35//bbl, or lower, by Q4. Such is the downward momentum right now in crude markets that it is perfectly possible that this price level will be breached well before then. As of Tuesday, […]
China Plans 13 New Crackers In Move Towards PE Self-Sufficiency
By John Richardson DETAILS are emerging of what could be as many as 13 new crackers in China that would all be on-stream very probably by 2025. I originally thought only around ten new crackers would be built by that date. This offers further support to my argument that it is perfectly possible that China will reach “effective” self-sufficiency […]