By John Richardson IF enough of the right kind of people say something enough times then everybody starts believing what they say, regardless of whether or not they have done the right kind of research. Part of this is down to a sense of insecurity – i.e. “why should I question what better-qualified people than […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Starting All Over Again: A Ten-Point Guide For 2015
By John Richardson AS chemicals companies go back to their budget plans for 2015, and redraw them entirely, here are ten things that they must take into account: The oil price is not going to return to $100 a barrel in a hurry, barring a major geopolitical shock – indeed, there is a chance that […]
China Polyethylene: Do Not Assume January Restocking
By John Richardson THERE is a lingering, and, I think, potentially damaging belief out there that this is just a particularly bad oil-driven destocking process and that very soon, China’s buyers will pretty much flood back into the polyethylene (PE) market. In emails and telephone calls this week, most of the market participants I spoke […]
So Much For The Bonus From Cheaper Oil
By John Richardson THE big turning point in Asian petrochemicals markets can be traced back to around the end of July for three big reasons: • It was broadly accepted from then onwards that China wasn’t going to change its policies. There would be no “blinking” via a big, old-style economic stimulus package. • The […]
Policymakers Have Failed The World
By John Richardson WHEN the economic, social and political history of 2008-2014 ends up being written, there are two groups of people who are going to end up bearing a lot of the blame for the new global financial crisis. It is the people who run the Fed and those who ran China’s government until […]
US Petrochemicals Will Suffer From “The Blame Game”
By John Richardson THE chat below provides some very instructive reading as it shows that: Since 2000, overall real consumption in US polyethylene (PE) has fallen from around 12.5m tonnes to 12.3m tonnes (real consumption is domestic production plus imports, and then minus exports, with end-year adjustments made for any inventory distortions). Low-density PE […]
The World Is Turning Upside Down
By John Richardson A COMMON view is that Asia’s petrochemicals markets are merely suffering from a temporary destocking phrase, driven by the collapse in crude-oil prices. So when crude oil prices settle down, everything will be fine. Many people also assume that the current widespread “buyers’ strike” is the result of seasonal factors – i.e. […]
Asian Chemicals Markets Panic Is About China’s Lending
Note to my readers: I had planned to write about China’s polyethylene (PE) market today, but have decided that it is, first of all, important to further explain the reasons why Asian chemicals markets are in such distress at the moment. (I will, instead, focus on PE tomorrow). Oil prices are tumbling because real price […]
Asia’s Petchems Decline: Reject Tried And Trusted Analysis
By John Richardson ASIA’S petrochemicals traders and producers have on the whole done fantastically well over the last 20 years by sticking with tried-and-trusted ways of assessing markets. It is very tempting, therefore, to think that today’s weak demand will soon be put right through just a few production cutbacks. Last week, my colleagues at […]
September 2008: How History Is Repeating Itself
By John Richardson WE know that weak growth in China, Europe and the US will have a major negative impact on the global economy in 2015. But does this really mean a new global financial crisis? Won’t the world’s economy instead just splutter along as it has done, pretty much, since the last crisis in […]
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