By John Richardson EVERY DAY that goes by when China is not entirely back at work the economic damage is multiplying. It already looks as if the best China can hope for is real as opposed to politically manufactured 2020 GDP growth of around 2.25%. And that assumes a rapid economic rebound from Q2, which […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Global polyethylene demand in 2020 could fall by 3.3m tonnes, cost curve analysis turned on its head
By John Richardson NOTHING that’s happened over the last few days that should surprise anyone who has been following my blog over the last few years. What was obviously impossible to forecast was the timing and nature of the catalyst. As I wrote on Monday: This crisis has been a long time coming. The build-up […]
China polyethylene imports could be 3m tonnes lower as economy seizes up
By John Richardson IT IS TIME for crisis planning, I am afraid, as a result of the World Health Organisation’s warning that the “window of opportunity” for preventing a global pandemic is narrowing. The risks have increased substantially over the last few days with major outbreaks of COVID-19 in Italy and South Korea. A disease […]
Rescue of major conglomerate, struggling SMEs raise risks for China and global economies
The most important issue here remains the human cost of the coronavirus outbreak. My thoughts and hopes continue to go out to my friends, contacts and colleagues in China. From the less important economic perspective, the good news is that the kind of coordinated action that would be impossible in any other country means the […]
Coronavirus threatens 2.9m tonnes of China PP demand as uncertainties increase
By John Richardson THE RUMOURS travelled around my contacts, and I am sure many of your contacts, for several weeks that China was undercounting the number of coronavirus cases (the disease has now been given a name – COVID-19). Someone said to me last week, “People go to hospital, get an initial positive diagnosis, are […]
US ethylene glycols: Diversifying away from China may prove impossible
By John Richardson US BUSINESSES are making arrangements to diversify their supply chains away from China because of a recognition that, even if a short term trade deal is done, the long term trajectory is towards a much more confrontational relationship between the US and China, says Jacob Parker, vice president of China operations at […]
Little prospects of genuine US and China deal leave US petrochemicals exports very vulnerable
As always, this blog post expresses my own personal views and these are not the views of ICIS. Thanks By John Richardson TEN HOURS before I wrote this blog post, the South China Morning Post published an article headlined, “Dim prospects for a deal as China and US resume trade war talks”. The newspaper said […]
China economic stimulus and PP: How global demand could have been 71m tonnes smaller
By John Richardson CHINA came to the rescue of the global economy in 2009. This wasn’t for altruistic reasons as a government study said that unless a huge stimulus programme was launched, 20m Chinese workers would return to the coastal cities from inland China after the Lunar New Year in 2009 without jobs. This would […]
Multiple trade disputes and the risks for the US PE industry
By John Richardson FALLING out with a trading partner as big as China is problematic enough. But the US is also out of sorts with the EU, India and Turkey and is at risk of ending up in a dispute with Vietnam. The row with China is far from being resolved despite the G20 truce. […]
US LLDPE imports and the impact on European petrochemicals
By John Richardson EUROPEAN linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) markets have yet to feel the full effect of the big increase in US production in 2019. One of the reasons is that some Middle East material that should have gone to Europe was diverted to China in January-April. Netbacks to China were stronger because Chinese […]