This was the warning from Bob Bauman of Nexant ChemSystems at last week’s 25th Annual Petrochemical Conference in Houston, Texas. Read below for some rather gloomy predictions of where markets could be heading in 2011-12
Asian Chemical Connections
How clean are coal-to-liquids? Does it really matter?
Paul Hodges, in his excellent chemicals and the economy blog, talks about the recent Shenhua Energy listing on the Shanghai stock exchange and how it shares jumped by 93% following the IPO. Now it has ample cash to pursue its ambitions. Shenhau is just one of numerous companies involved in coal-to-liquids projects in China which […]
Another great year for Asian polyolefins but……
……how long will it last is the inevitable question. Demand growth has been so strong so far this year with very little new production coming onstream that while crude oil and the price of monomers have set a floor for pricing, they no longer appear to be the main drivers behind fluctuations and increases; in […]
The world goes Upsize barmy
Standing in the queue for Starbucks (not McDonalds – no way, and my son’s going nowhere near that place) it’s so easy to opt for the half bucket-sized Grande option because, after all, we are all rich these days and anyway it costs hardly anything to “Upsize”. Walk around Starbucks and you’ll notice numerous Grande […]
Methanol – a Dickens of a good or bad tale
Methanol producers have been enjoying the best of times, but to paraphrase good old Charles Dickens, they may not necessarily be heading for the worst of times. There is a staggering amount of capacity due on stream by 2012. By that year, global capacity will stand at 66m tonne/year according to Mark Berggren of consultancy, […]
Is the elephant about to fall off the bike?
As Paul Hodges notes in his Chemicals and the Economy blog https://www.icis.com/blogs/chemicals%2Dand%2Dthe%2Deconomy/, China’s Finance Minister quit this morning – either over his role in a sex scandal or because inflation and the stock markets are out of control. Petrochemical demand growth has been booming in China because, as a bureaucrat put it shortly after WTO […]
The global credit crisis is going to last
The collective sigh of relief was almost audible late last week when the Fed cut its discount rate – the rate banks charge each other for lending. Action from other central banks, including the European Central Bank, could follow this week. Analysts also rate the likelihood of the Fed cutting its formal interest rate at […]
Construction crisis? What crisis? China leads the way
As the Middle East struggles to find labour and raw material supply with contractors’ order books bursting at the seams, the Chinese seem to have no difficulty in executing their projects. See below for detailed analysis of what’s happening with the current wave of Chinese crackers. Suffice to say here that nearly all of China’s […]
The fallout for petrochemicals from Iraq
As everyone focuses on when the next downturn might arrive, macro issues such as the implications of a likely US withdrawal from Iraq are rarely publicly discussed. But if I were on the board of any company making investment decisions, I’d be worried. If the US withdrawal from Iraq is well managed then fears such […]
China’s crackers are on track. Is this bad news?
The consultants, traders and producers I spoke to last week insist that the current wave of new Chinese ethylene capacity due on stream in the current Five-Year Plan (2006-10), Download file is more or less on track to be completed on schedule. Also see on these slides the ICIS insight Asia list of crackers after […]
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