By John Richardson CHINA’S decision to scrap its one-child policy will obviously not make any significant difference to labour shortages for at least the next 20 years or so as that is how long it will take all the new children to grow up and join the workforce. This is assuming there is a sudden […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Chemicals Exports Surge As Everything Changes
By John Richardson IN the good old days everybody could very easily export just about all their surplus chemicals and polymers volumes to China for two very obvious reasons. Firstly, even real GDP growth, never mind the fabricated government numbers, was nearly always close to or actually in double digits. And secondly, China was short of […]
India: How The “Local For Local” Model Can Boost Growth
By John Richardson IT is just silly, the idea that India can become an export-based heavy manufacturing powerhouse to rival China. Here are four very good reasons why this cannot happen: China, despite its rising labour costs in its eastern provinces, has vast supply chain advantages and far superior infrastructure which keeps getting better and […]
Climate Change: Taking Out An Insurance Policy
By John Richardson WOULD you get on board a plane without taking out travel insurance to protect your family? Of course not, even though the chances of you being involved in a plane crash are one in 9 million. And would you step into an ocean where dangerous sharks swim, especially if you live where […]
The West Is Becoming “Cash Poor And Time Rich”
By John Richardson Consumers in the West are moving from being ‘cash rich and time poor” to being “cash poor and time rich”. The reason is that Western fertility rates have below replacement level (2.1 babies/woman) for 45 years since 1970, meaning there are relatively fewer Wealth Creators. Another problem is the pension pot in […]
Myth No 5: China Has Enough Money To Bail Itself Out
By John Richardson MYTH No 1 about China is that the rise of its middle classes guarantees a prosperous economic future. No need for a Plan B we are told. Just follow the money by investing in lots of autos and other manufacturing capacity, often “high end”, and everything will be fine – along with, […]
It’s Insane But Why Not? Oil Back at $100 By Christmas
By John Richardson ALBERT Einstein is widely credited with saying this: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results”. Who cares if it is either paraphrased or he didn’t even say it at all? This is a fantastic quote. For me, what makes this quote so […]
US Petchems: Last Piece Of Expansion Logic Fades On Falling Crude
By John Richardson THE demand was simply never going to be there to support anywhere close to the number of US cracker and derivatives projects listed in the table above. There long been two reasons for this: The US is a mature market with no demand growth since 2000 in ethylene and the biggest-volume derivative […]
Time To Scrap Old Thinking On Oil Markets
By John Richardson A SEASONAL fall-off in demand for oil, rising concerns over the Chinese economy and worsening global oversupply of crude could push oil down into the $30 dollars a barrel range, a majority of analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal now believe. And money manager David Kotok has told CNNMoney that oil […]
China’s Environment: Business As Usual Not An Option
By John Richardson SONG Wei, an environmentalist from Hunan province, told the BBC in July: “No more economic growth stained by blood. Under the new environment law, every factory has to be approved before it’s built. We’re putting an end to unregulated chaos.” (China introduced a New Environmental Protection Law in January). The cynics will, of […]
Jump to page: