By John Richardson CHINA’S Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) is alive and kicking and will, in my view, go from strength to strength as it radically reshapes the global economy, China’s geopolitical relationship with the US and global petrochemical trade flows and investments. Why it is alive and kicking? Because China has no other choice. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Assessing global PP prospects next year: seeing the simplicity through all the complexity
By John Richardson IT COULD be very complicated and yet, as the chart above indicates, it might instead by extremely simple. Here I use the example of polypropylene (PP), but similar complexities and one simplicity also apply to the paraxylene and styrene markets and all their downstream derivatives, as I shall discuss in later blog […]
Risks ahead for global polypropylene much greater than for polyethylene
By John Richardson THERE SEEMS to be few risks ahead for the global polyethylene (PE) market over the next five years. The internet sales boom, despite all the talk about using less plastic for sustainability reasons, promises to provide strong support for consumption. The average internet sale is dropped 17 times before delivery, providing a […]
Exporters of PP and SM to China seem to have options other than shutdowns, but not PX exporters
By John Richardson DIFFICULT choices lie ahead for exporters of polypropylene (PP), styrene monomer (SM) and paraxylene (PX) to China. From next year onwards, the country’s imports will start to decline and by 2023-2025 complete self-sufficiency may be reached in all these products. Just how significant this shift will be for global markets, we can […]
China polyethylene and ethlyene glycols in 2021: country-by-country outlook for exporters
By John Richardson CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) imports could be at either 19.8m tonnes in 2021 or 16.8m tonnes, as I discussed on Wednesday. The above chart illustrates what effect these best- and worst-case outcomes would have on imports from China’s 12 biggest trading partners, assuming they win the same percentage market shares of the total […]
China’s PE imports in 2021 could be as high as 19.8m tonnes or as low as 16.8m tonnes
By John Richardson IN SCENARIO 3 in the above chart, China would import 16.8m tonnes of polyethylene (PE) in 2021. This would be down by 13% from the estimated total imports for this year – 18.9m tonnes – based on annualising the actual January-September import data. The January-October data should be available later this week. […]
China may next year import 66% less PP from South Korea than in 2020, 72% less styrene from Saudi Arabia
By John Richardson All the numbers that follow are my estimates only and are not the official ICIS numbers. But I hope what follows helps you with your planning process for 2021. Our ICIS Supply & Demand Database is a key tool for your planning process, as all the scenarios below would have been impossible […]
China petrochemicals rebound provides major global demand boost
By John Richardson WOW yet again. China’s export-led economic recovery continues to support global petrochemicals demand growth. Our business looks set to enjoy a much better year in 2020 than nearly all us had imagined was possible back in Q1. Here I only look at mono-ethylene glycol (MEG) and paraxylene (PX). But watch this blog […]
Vaccines, petrochemicals demand and a much more complex world
By John Richardson WE DIDN’T used to require expert knowledge of vaccines, epidemiology, political science and the impact of social media on human behaviour if we wanted to forecast petrochemicals demand, to name but a few of the many new disciplines that have now become essential. All we had to do was take IMF or […]
China’s booming polypropylene demand in 2020 and what could happen next year
By John Richardson IT has been a year that just about nobody in the Asian polypropylene (PP) industry had expected back in the dark days of April. At that time, negative demand growth in China during 2020 seemed a strong possibility. What instead has taken place is a solid recovery in the Chinese economy following […]