Note that all the comparisons in this post are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise stated By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart, completing my analysis of supply and demand for China’s major petrochemicals and polymers in January-July, seems to indicate nothing much to be concerned about. If only the future were the same. What you […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Pandemic and the developing world: No quick and easy solutions
By John Richardson POVERTY alleviation in low-income developing countries could be set back a decade by the pandemic, warns the IMF in a new study. Problems it highlights include the collapse of remittance payments from overseas, down by 18% year-on-year in Bangladesh in January-May, lockdowns that have left workers living on the margin unable to […]
The pandemic and petrochemicals demand: a whole new approach is required
By John Richardson MONITORING demand has never been harder because of the pandemic. One of my colleagues on the ICIS Pricing team was, for example, last week told by one of his reliable contacts that polyethylene (PE) demand was good, bad or indifferent. It used to be that if you talked to the people you […]
China’s new five-year-plan to accelerate petrochemicals self-sufficiency
By John Richardson IT IS ONCE again a critical moment in forecasting the direction of China’s petrochemicals industry and with it, of course, the direction of the global industry, as the global industry so heavily depends on China. If China’s deficits were to entirely disappear, what would many of us then do for a living? […]
Why history might not even rhyme next year if economic recovery fails to arrive
By John Richardson WE were very lucky in 2010, as the above chart illustrates. Global demand for polyethylene (PE), which had fallen to minus 3% in 2008 because of the Global Financial Crisis, bounced back to 10% growth. We were lucky for two reasons. Firstly, the world’s financial system was rescued, which at one stage […]
Vaccine hopes versus reality and the implications for petrochemicals
By John Richardson THE WONDERFUL poet, T.S. Eliot, wrote “humankind cannot bear very much reality”. One of the realities that I believe many us have failed to come to terms with is that an effective coronavirus vaccine isn’t just a few months away, but is instead several years away. I believe we will eventually get […]
China polyolefins market H1 review: so far so good, but beware of the risks ahead
By John Richardson ALL looks fine in the polyolefins world. The Old Normal appears to have reasserted itself as Chinese demand has come roaring back. (Note that all the following numbers are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise stated.) H1 2020 data shows that polyethylene (PE) apparent demand (net imports plus local production) grew by […]
Why the polypropylene industry must switch from volumes to value
By John Richardson EVERYONE knows about the oversupply in the polyethylene (PE) market as it has been discussed in more presentations and conferences than any of have had hot dinners. But less understood is the extent of oversupply in the global polypropylene (PP) business, which you can see from the above chart on the left. […]
China consulate closure underlines long-term split with US, potential big shift in petchems trade flows
The views in this blog post are, as always, my personal views and do not reflect the views of ICIS. Thank you By John Richardson A VIEW often expressed is that if Joe Biden wins the US presidential election in November, relationships between the US and China will greatly improve. I believe, though, that the […]
China’s real GDP could have been negative in Q2: What this may mean for PP
By John Richardson CHINA’S official GDP growth of 3.2% for Q2, which was announced last week, may not reflect real levels of economic activity, according to Derek Scissors, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, a non-profit research body. He goes as far as to say that the Chinese economy probably contracted […]