Don’t follow the herd… By John Richardson ISN’T it amazing how we keep getting caught out by the unexpected, from the global financial crisis to China is entering a period of much-lower growth? No, not really. As long as we keep being driven by the short attention-span of financial markets and the demands of quarterly […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Planning For New Growth Patterns
By John Richardson “Have you noticed that your parents spend less money than you do?” asks Merryn Somerset Webb in this Financial Times article. She agrees with us that the answer is, of course, “Yes”. This very neatly brings the issue down to a personal level, one that all of us can relate to, and […]
The BRICS Fallacy
By John Richardson THE above chart, from a new Research Note released by fellow blogger Paul Hodges, exposes the fallacy that BRICS and emerging-market growth can by themselves rescue the global economy. And, as we have highlighted before on this blog, there are no long-term guarantees that China, the big driver of BRICS growth, will continue […]
World Heading For L-Shaped Recovery
Mr Bernanke, please take note By John Richardson The recovery is always six months away and so while most people have written-off the first half of next year, the hope is that by H2 everything will be back to normal. But as fellow blogger Paul Hodges points out in this video, which he further underlines […]
Dow and DuPont Make Major Job Cuts
Dupont’s Ellen Kullman By John Richardson Dow Chemical’s decision to cut 2,400 jobs, as it posted a 32% drop in earnings per share, was the result of what CEO Andrew Liveris said was difficult conditions that “may have extended staying power, as the new reality is that we are operating in a slow-growth and […]
US Set To Adopt A Golden Rule
By John Richardson ONE of the golden rules of petrochemicals is “always run hard if you have the feedstock advantage”. As a result, the US is said to have been a little frustrated by a series of operating problems that have constrained their average capacity utilisation to around 80% in 2012. “If they had been able to they would […]
China GDP Growth 4-5% in 2013-2020
Canton Trade Fair. Source of picture: http://www.vatti-china.com/News/83.htm By John Richardson IT would be nice to believe that the improved mood at this week’s Canton Trade Fair represents a long-term turnaround in China’s economic direction. This reflects a 9.9% increase in overall exports in September, much higher than the 5.5% median estimate in a Bloomberg […]
The End Of Growth
By John Richardson OUR e-book, Boom Gloom & The New Normal, is a set of ideas meant to challenge conventional wisdom. Some of our ideas will need to be adapted and discarded. But our essential point is that the New Normal represents a way of thinking as much as a set of ideas, because the world has […]
Rising Labour Costs Threaten US Projects
By John Richardson RISING labour costs will impact the viability of US petrochemicals projects as a result of the surge in overall hydrocarbons construction activity, an industry source told the blog. “Unless companies lock-in their labour costs fairly quickly, before the big surge in activity ahead of numerous cracker and derivatives start-ups planned for 216-2017, […]
Much Less Of This…..
…….. Source: FT Beyondbrics By John Richardson A fascinating article by the academic Anil K Gupta and consultant Haiyan Wang offers further support to our long-running argument that the future will not necessarily be the same as the future, when it comes to China. The blog continues to be alarmed by the degree of […]
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