As I’ve been warning on this blog for some time, the explosion of credit in China has created a great deal of paper-bottomed optimism over the recovery. Fitch, the ratings agency, has just raised its macro-prudential risk indicator ffor China from category 1 (safe) to category 3 (Iceland et al) because of the lending surge […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Don’t You Wish You Could Be Yourself?
Picture: The Daily Mail Ok, I lied – I am having trouble getting back into my petrochemicals bubble and so this post is not about polypropylene. Apologies to all those disappointed C3 H6 molecules out there. I was sharing lunch with a highly demotivated Singapore-based chemicals industry employee recently and the great British 1970s sitcom, […]
Does anyone have a clue?
Cartoon: Peter Brookes, The Times Yes, this blog has gone staggeringly quiet over the last few weeks as I gained a life: I went home to the UK and mixed with some people who had no interest in or desire to know anything about polypropylene. Do you realise that there are some people out there […]
Raining on the Optimists’ Parade
Source: The Guardian newspaper Apologies for letting this bog slip again. I am on leave, but still pondering where on earth we are heading. This makes a welcome relief from staring up at the grey skies and thinking “summer? What summer?” Yes, I am on leave in the UK and Wimbledon is about to start. […]
China borrowing from the future?
It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement over the rebound in the Chinese economy and miss underlying weaknesses which point to some major problems ahead. To some extent, in a desperate effort to compensate for collapsing export trade, China might have borrowed from the future in order to achieve a swift recovery. “The […]
An Affair To Remember
Source:Amazon.com I remain perplexed by the direction of chemicals, oil and commodity markets over the last few months – and now I understand the reason why. It’s not about feedstock, it’s not about inventory levels or what end-use demand is really like, it’s all to do with affairs of the heart. Thanks again to my […]
Be very careful what you wish for…
Source of picture: The Nymex To continue the same theme of earlier this week, I agree with my fellow blogger Paul Hodges when he warns that OPEC’s price target for $75-80/bbl could nip the nascent economic recovery in the bud. As he quite rightly argues, inventory building ahead of further crude rises in 2007-08 occurred […]
The next oil shock and petrochemicals
Apologies for letting this blog slip again, but have been busy trying to make a crust presenting ICIS training courses. And so as a bonus for our army of avid readers, here are my extended thoughts on the above: In the midst of the economic crisis it would be so easy to bury your head […]
Maybe it’s not as bleak as I’ve made out…
Consensus opinion tends to swing firmly in one direction and then the other. For example, in the good old days of 2007 you would have been pretty hard-pressed to find many in the chemicals industry who saw anything but a mildly cyclical downturn. But the widely-held view now – that we are facing five years […]
It’s about scaling down rather than up
One of the new skills being learnt in this current crisis is how to run plants efficiently at low operating rates. “It’s funny that for years now, we’ve worried about how to scale up profitably. Now industry is faced with just the opposite, how to scale down profitably,” says Mark Matzopoulos, chief operating officer at […]
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