Politicians seem to be floundering as they seek to restore growth to the Western economy. Their prescriptions swing between austerity and economic stimulus as they argue over what has gone wrong. But in chapter 10 of our Boom, Gloom & The New Normal e-book we argue that they are on the wrong track. They are […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Synthetic Fibres Fall Further
By John Richardson CHINA’S synthetic fibres chain continues to show serious signs of distress as a result of weak domestic and export demand, according to my ICIS colleagues, Judith Wang and Becky Zhang. Traders in monoethylene glycol (MEG) must have believed the theory that petrochemicals demand growth in general would be strong, as inventory levels in Chinese ports […]
China’s Leadership Struggle
By John Richardson IT is still an article of faith among some people in the chemicals industry that all you have to do is concentrate on cost-efficient supply and the demand in developing countries such as China will inevitably continue on an even, upward course. But this week’s extraordinary political events in China further demonstrates […]
China Polyester Chain Weakens
By Malini Hariharan The polyester chain is feeling the strain of poor Chinese demand. Weak export demand and Chinese government policy are also impacting this sector, as is the case in polyolefins. A further factor behind the problems in the polyester chain is the fall in cotton prices, as fellow blogger Paul Hodges points out. Monoethylene […]
China Auto Sales Point To Long-term Shift
By John Richardson The impact of Chinese government policy adjustments on petrochemicals demand was further highlighted late last week, when auto-sales figures for January-February were released. Sales declined by 4.4 percent, the worst two-month start for the industry in seven years, with local-brand sales falling by 17 percent. This is sure to dampen the mood […]
China Set To Gain The Most From Inland Boom
By John Richardson LAST week we discussed how inland markets in China – which are booming thanks to government efforts to raise rural income levels – offer huge opportunities for petrochemicals producers. Here are a few further reasons to believe that it will be local rather than overseas producers which benefit the most. Beijing […]
PE Margins Lowest On Record
By John Richardson ANOTHER week has gone by with no evidence of significantly stronger polyethylene (PE) volumes in China. Rising labour costs, because of mandated government increases in minimum wages, and the shortages of labour post-Lunar New Year, are still making it difficult for plastic converters to run at full capacity. The recovery in pricing […]
China Inland Boom: Who Will Benefit?
By John Richardson This fascinating article in The Economist raises further important questions about the impact on petrochemicals of changing migration patterns. Last week, we discussed how what industry executives had been discussing for three years has finally happened: Severe labour shortages in the southern and eastern provinces post-Lunar New Year, preventing chemicals and polymer […]
World Bank Highlights China Risks
By John Richardson A NEW report by the World Bank on China, summarised on the slide below, supports what we argued in chapter 6 our e-book, Boom, Gloom & The New Normal: That without the success of efforts to reform the economy, the country risks a significant slowdown. Those reform efforts, detailed in the […]
Pricing To Struggle For The Rest of 2012
By John Richardson Further confirmation of the themes we raised yesterday emerged from an interview with a senior polyolefin industry source, with some important new analysis. Profitability in Asia is the worst of any of the three regions, he told us, although volumes remain good. In the US, he characterised demand as “pretty reasonable”, but […]
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