The views in this blog, are, as always, my own personal views and don’t reflect the views of ICIS. Thanks By John Richardson LORD SALISBURY, who served as British Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, understood it was impossible to turn back time to the American Civil of […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Unsustainable boom in China auto market ends as sales of new vehicles move permanently lower
By John Richardson THERE IS a big temptation when making forecasts of becoming too excited about the recent past. Judgements are at risk of being blurred by euphoria, resulting in very bad investment decisions based on the notion that the recent past will reflect the long-term future. Paradigm shifts do occur from time to time. […]
How the Millennials and “less is more” are destroying petrochemicals demand
By John Richardson WE HAVE gone beyond the point of no return because of a major societal shift. Millennials, and a good number of a lot older people such as myself, have come to believe that “less is more”, that the environmental cost of throwaway consumption is intolerable. Take this comment from this Wall Street […]
Trade War: 88m tonnes of lost polymers demand despite the boom in Asia ex-China
By John Richardson SURE, there are tremendous opportunities for petrochemicals and polymers companies in booming Southeast (SEA) Asia and South Asia as manufacturing chains relocate from China. Demographics are economic destiny. This is a process that has been taking place for at least ten years as Chinese labour costs rise on an ageing population whereas […]
China inland polyethylene growth: The big unanswered question
By John Richardson IF China played an insignificant role in global polyethylene (PE) demand the above chart would not matter. Few people would care about the latent potential of China’s 21 relatively poor mainland provinces if China were as unimportant as India and the Asia & Pacific region. “Surely not? India and Asia & Pacific […]
The squeezed middle class and the threat to free trade
By John Richardson IF THE US had the same income distribution it had in 1979, the bottom 80% of the population would have $1 trillion -or $11,000 per family – more. The top 1% $1 trillion – $750,000 tonnes – less, according to this FT article by Lawrence Summers. From a dollars and cents perspective […]
China’s vital internet economy cannot be sacrificed for trade deal
By John Richardson THE latest stumbling block for the US/China trade talks is the Chinese reluctance to open up its market to foreign cloud computing companies, curb requirements for companies to store data locally and loosen restrictions on the transfer of data overseas. Many people’s first reaction will be that this is all about the […]
Growth in China second hand car market driven by ageing population
By John Richardson CHINA will become a country of a billion plus Western-style middle class consumers is what many people have been telling us for many years. Its unstoppable economic rise involves hundreds of millions more Chinese rising out of poverty as the economic boom moves steadily westwards into its poorer regions, is the popular […]
China’s ageing population could cost 240 million tonnes of polymers demand
By John Richardson THERE was nothing miraculous about the “Chinese economic miracle”. What instead happened was a lucky coincidence of economic reforms and lots and lots of babies. The reforms were led by Deng Xiaoping who in 1978 decided to open up the Chinese economy. But the opening up would not have delivered significant benefits […]
China’s fall in births and economic decline may be impossible to fix
By John Richardson CHINA’S official Lunar New Year postage stamp for 2019 shows a family of five happy pigs made up of two parents and three children. This is if course is the Year of the Pig and in Chinese culture pigs represent wealth and treasure. Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist, is amongst others who […]