By John Richardson WHEN the Americans and the Europeans come back from their summer holidays in September it seems quite possible that they will see history repeat itself. It was of course from September 2014 onwards that commodities prices started to decline from their all-time record highs, largely because of a belated understand that credit […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China PP Market Underlines Return To Global Deflation
By John Richardson CHINA’S polypropylene (PP) net trade, which is imports minus exports, fell by 31% on a month-on-month basis in April to around 316,000 tonnes. That was to be expected given the 42% surge in net trade in Q1 2017 over the first quarter of last year. But if you look at the period from January […]
China Takes Two Steps Back: The New Lending Surge
By John Richardson JUST as it appeared as if the visionary reformers within the Chinese government had won their battle to deflate the most economically and environmentally toxic investment bubble in global economic history, China has taken a step backwards. As the chart below shows, total social financing (TSF) has once again gone through the […]
China Reforms Stay On Track With 8% Credit Fall
By John Richardson THE above chart shows the moving average growth of total social financing (TSF) in China since 2009 in US dollars. You can see the surge in the growth of TSF from 2009 until 2013 and its subsequent decline. This decline has followed the crucial 3rd Plenum Meeting in November 2013, when China […]
China Jan-Feb Polyethylene Imports Fall 22%
By John Richardson CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) imports declined again in February, and are down by an average of 22% over both January and February of this year compared with the same period in 2014. SOME people will tell you that this is nothing to be seriously worried about. They will argue that January-February 2014, imports reached […]
China: Your Four-Point Guide To The Interest Rate Cut
By John Richardson LATE last year China’s government launched one final round of old-style economic stimulus so they could build-up political support ahead of the boldest set of reforms to the economy in at least 20 years. This was clearly, therefore, a tactical decision, as I argued at the time. But a lot of other […]
Want To Keep Your Job? What To Tell Your Boss
By John Richardson THE economic data on China was very useful yesterday if you had already gone long on oil or US equities. Both crude and the S&P 500 rallied on positive interpretations of Q3 GDP and industrial production data, which included the following: “China’s gross domestic product increased by 7.3% in the third quarter, […]
China Polyethylene: Fitting 11% Into 6%
By John Richardson ELEVEN per cent apparent demand growth in polyethylene (PE) in China will not go into estimates of real demand growth at no more than 6%. This is our concern based on the latest set of data on the market (see the above slide). As you can see: Apparent demand growth (imports minus […]
As China Stays The Course, Plan For Collateral Damage
By John Richardson LAST week’s $5-15/tonne decline in polyethylene (PE) pricing in China (see the above chart) is partly the result of negative sentiment created by the start-up of new domestic capacities. In July, Shaanxi Yanchang China Coal Yulin Energy and Chemical brought on-stream high-density PE and linear low-density (LLDPE) plants, each of which have […]
China Going To Plan: Credit Up Just 4%
By John Richardson TOTAL social financing (TSF) in China increased by just 4% in H1 of this year over the same period in 2013, according to official government figures (TSF is the measure of total new credit issued in China, via both the official banks and the “shadow” banking system). This figure is of far […]
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